2024 Iowa Caucus Odds: Donald Trump the Heavy Favorite to Win Iowa Caucus
The Republican Primary heads to the first test in the Iowa caucuses next week. With Donald Trump maintaining a massive lead in the polls, will he dominate this first test, or will another contender surprise him. Let's take a look at the latest 2024 Iowa Caucus odds and see where the field stands.
Peter Alexis - January 12, 2024, 9:45 AM EST
5 min2024 Iowa Caucus Odds: Donald Trump the Heavy Favorite to Win Iowa Caucus
The long-awaited 2024 presidential race is finally reaching its first official measurement, as we sit on the eve of the Iowa Caucus. The controversy has run rampant, with legal battles and vicious attacks, as voters attempt to navigate this unique and polarizing landscape.
Iowa isn't the be-all and end-all in the primary race. In the last seven Republican Primary's without a GOP incumbent, only two times did the victor in Iowa go on to win the nomination. However, it is a critical battle because of the media attention and momentum it can generate with a strong performance, which is why candidates pour hundreds of millions into the state.
Donald Trump arrives to Iowa with a colossal lead, and is expecting to roll over the competition on Monday night. The odds certainly agree with him, but the focus will be on who can fight for second and propel themselves into the limelight as the main contender. Can anyone challenge Donald Trump at this early point in the race, or will he maintain his torrid pace with a landslide victory? Let's take a look at the latest 2024 Iowa Caucus odds and see where the field stands in this race.
2024 Iowa Caucus Odds
Candidate | Odds | Implied Probability |
|---|---|---|
Donald Trump | -1600 | 94.1% |
Ron Desantis | +3000 | 3.3% |
Nikki Haley | +3800 | 2.6% |
Vivek Ramaswamy | +7600 | 1.3% |
The Iowa caususes will kickstart the 2024 race on Monday, and a blowout victory for Trump will only propel him further into the lead in the Republican primary. As can be seen in the table, Trump has over a 94% chance of winning with the current odds of -1600, which are even shorter on some other sportsbooks. It would take a shocking upset for him not to win the first state and start with the lead in the primary race.
Ron Desantis and Nikki Haley are battling for the best of the rest behind Trump. It is basically a fight for second at this point in time, and the loser risks falling much further back in the polls. Desantis previously had a bigger lead in Iowa and many states as the firm second contender, but Haley has crept up and may end up edging him out on Monday night. The current odds give Desantis a 3.3% chance of winning, while Haley has a 2.6% shot.
Desantis was originally expected to be the main challenger for the "Never Trump" side of the Republican party, but his star has slowly flamed out over the last year. What was once a single-digit gap in the polls has widened to 25+ points in most states, and he will have trouble making that up if he doesn't start hot in the first few primaries and caucuses. Once friends and allies, Trump and Desantis are now bitter rivals as the race heats up. Trump claims he helped Desantis get elected as governor in his home state of Florida, and expected him to wait until 2028 to begin his run at the White House.
Haley has been the surprise contender, who no one really expected to challenge for the top spot when she announced her candidacy a little less than a year ago. She has risen past Desantis in many spots, and Trump has begun attack ads against her, which her campaign declared as him getting nervous. Most pundits expected she would be out of the race by now, similar to the recently-exited Chris Christie. Haley held a position in Trump's cabinet in the last administration, and is now trending as one of his top rivals. She also holds the fourth-best odds to be Trump's Vice President when the dust settles in June.
Will either Desantis or Haley find a way to challenge Trump in Iowa, or will he run away with an easy win? The two will likely duke it out for second place, and these results will help shape the rest of the race over the next several months.
