Next Pope Odds: Pietro Parolin Given 34% Chance to be Elected Pope Over Luis Antonio Tagle in Early Betting
Following the passing of Pope Francis on the Monday after Easter, it will be a race to see who the Catholic Church elects as his successor in the coming weeks. The picture is becoming clearer after 24 hours, with a few major candidates coming into frame. Peter Alexis updates you on the latest Next Pope Odds, as Pietro Parolin emerges as the early favorite to take over as the Next Pope.
Peter Alexis - April 22, 2025, 10:13 AM EDT
5 minNext Pope Odds: Pietro Parolin Given 34% Chance to be Elected Pope Over Luis Antonio Tagle in Early Betting
As the news of Pope Francis' passing spread across the globe in the last 24 hours, the world mourned the loss of a progressive leader. He was at the forefront of many changes in the Catholic Church, focusing on the aid of the poor and the inclusion of diverse backgrounds. Ceremonies will mourn him throughout the week, and the Vatican will begin preparations for their next chapter.
Pope Francis experienced strong success and approval ratings, and the Vatican will have their hands full trying to replace him. The big decision will be in which theological direction they will head after the last 12 years of intense change. Will they go back towards traditional church centrist views, or continue down the progressive path?
Within the next 15-20 days, the next pope should be taking over, as the Vatican looks to reduce any turmoil and elect the successor as soon as possible. But who are the main candidates? Let's break it down with the latest Next Pope Odds as of Tuesday, April 22nd, as we update yesterday's original report with in-depth analysis and odds breakdown of the major Cardinal possibilities.
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Next Pope Odds
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Next Pope Odds: Pietro Parolin Has Current Odds Advantage
Favorite: Pietro Parolin (+188)
Pietro Parolin is shaping up to be a strong favorite in this papacy process. He has the Italian ties in the Vatican stronghold, serving as Secretary of State for the last 12 years. He also brings more moderate and centrist views than most of the other Cardinals, which could make him easier to elect. Remember, you need 80 of the 120 eligible voters to select you in order to become the next pope.
Parolin originally opened at +300, and climbed as high as +150 before settling in this +188 range as of Tuesday morning. That's a 34.7% chance now, which will certainly fluctuate as the days and weeks go on. But with his political experience, electable theologies, and extensive Vatican experience, he will be the ultimate traditionalist selection. It will all depend on if the conclave wants to edge back towards that middle ground at the end of the day.
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Next Best Chance: Luis Antonio Tagle (+300)
Luis Antonio Tagle was tied with Pietro Parolin in the odds at one point on Monday, within the first 12 hours of the news breaking. They were both at +150, giving them each a 40% chance. But Tagle has seen his odds drop a bit in the 24 hours since, back down to +300 and a 25% chance. These odds will bounce around a bit, but note that he never overtook the local favorite Parolin, and it will be tough to do so.
Tagle has a unique edge being from the Philippines, bringing Asian culture into the mix and a potential to expand the Catholic Church further in those regions. He is one of the more liberal candidates on this list, very similar to the views and policies implemented by Pope Francis.
Dark Horse: Matteo Zuppi (+700)
Matteo Zuppi has been quietly climbing up the ranks in this early race for the next Pope. He sits at +700 odds, a +12.5% chance and rising. Zuppi has been the archbishop of Bologna for the last decade, and has the Italian edge in this battle, especially if the Catholic Church wants to return back to a European pope.
Zuppi has been described as a left-leaning modernist, even more so than Tagle. He spent a lot of time with Pope Francis, and is allegedly trusted in major Vatican circles. The main debate on Tagle is if he's too liberal, and the church wants to move back towards the center after this decade of progressive policy.
Falling Out of Contention: Angelo Scola (+2000)
Angelo Scola was once highly touted as a potential candidate for the papacy, but has seen his odds drop considerably. Scola served as the archbishop of Milan from 2011 to 2017. Back in 2013 when the conclave met, he was very close to being selected, before Pope Francis got the nod.
But that was 12 years ago, when Scola was in his early 70's. He's now 83, and past the 80 age limit for voting, which will only hurt his case. Scola has fallen from +700 odds at the opening, all the way down to +2000, giving him just a 4.8% chance in this race.
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