Next Pope Odds: Who Will Take Over in Vatican After Passing of Pope Francis?
Pope Francis passed away on Monday morning, just hours after his final Easter service. Who will get the nod to replace him in the Vatican next week? Peter Alexis explores the process of electing a new pope, and which figure is most likely to be selected.
Peter Alexis - April 21, 2025, 4:03 PM EDT
4 minNext Pope Odds: Who Will Take Over in Vatican After Passing of Pope Francis?
After his final public appearance at Easter Mass on April 20th, Pope Francis passed away on Monday morning in the Vatican following a long bout with lung disease. He was 88 years old, and had served as the Pope for just over 12 years.
The Pope met with JD Vance and others at Sunday service, where many had thought he had recovered from his pneumonia stint over the winter. But that seemed to not be the case, as he succumbed to his poor health just a day later, holding on for one last Easter.
There will be a week of mourning and final visits for many parishioners, before the conclave meets to elect a new Pope. But who will they be selecting? There has been much speculation during Pope Francis' illness, so they've had time to prepare for this move. Let's check out the latest next Pope odds, and see who has the best chance to take over in the Vatican.
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Next Pope Odds
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Next Pope Odds: Who will take over in the Vatican?
The most likely candidate to replace Pope Francis is Pietro Parolin at +150 odds. Parolin has been the Secretary of State in the Vatican since 2013, and would be a similar successor to the previous regime. He has strong diplomatic and political experience, and is on the same theological trajectory as Francis was.
There is now a dual favorite as of Monday afternoon, with Luis Antonio Tagle rising up to +150 to tie with Parolin. Tagle is from the Philippines, and is considered a more progressive option, and brings an Asian heritage into the mix that hasn't been seen before in the papacy.
This market has shifted away from Angelo Scola, who now sits way back at +2000. He was a favorite back in 2013 when the conclave met, but his age at this time may put him out of contention. He's 83 years old at this time, putting him over the 80 age limit to vote in the conclave, which hurts his chances significantly.
It appears likely that the next Pope will nudge the congregation back towards the center, a bit of a swing away from the heavily progressive views of the last decade. While Francis found success in his directive as the Catholic Church continued to clean up from prior scandals that rocked the clergy in the early 2000's, some felt that Francis alienated conservatives with his views on social justice, climate change, and capitalism. However, he had an overall favorable view from most catholics. His approval rating was 78% near the end of his tenure, and peaked at 90% back in 2015.
The College of Cardinals will likely meet in the next week to continue deliberations on the next selection. It takes a 2/3 majority to make the selection, and there are currently 138 Cardinals in the total pool. However, due to various age restrictions and other stipulations, only 120 of them can vote. So the winning Pope will need to gather 80 votes in this process to succeed Pope Francis in the coming weeks.
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Last Updated: Monday, April 21, 2025: 4:03 PM ET
