2028 Democrat Nominee Odds: Gavin Newsom Early Leader to Represent Democrats in 2028 Election
2028 may be a long way away, but Gavin Newsom and the other high-profile democrats are looking to assert themselves as viable candidates for the primary already. Kalshi traders are getting action in on their favorite politicians to represent the Democrat Party against JD Vance and the Republicans in 2028.
Peter Alexis - August 14, 2025, 7:00 PM EDT
4 Minute Read2028 Democrat Nominee Odds: Gavin Newsom Early Leader to Represent Democrats in 2028 Election
Donald Trump may have only won the 2024 Presidential Election less than a year ago, but the race for 2028 starts early. While no politicians have officially declared yet, they are quietly visiting battleground states
Gavin Newsom is in the news this week as he fires back aggressively against Republicans in California. In response to attempted redistricting in Texas, he's looking to match that plan to offset in his home state with the Election Rigging Response Act. Whether or not anything happens with it, he's hoping to prove his toughness on a national scale as he prepares for a likely 2028 run.
Will Gavin Newsom remain the favorite throughout the process? Could Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez make a splash? Let's answer those questions and more with the latest Kalshi presidential election odds for 2028. If you are new to Kalshi and want to bet on markets like this 2028 Democrat Nominee market, you can sign up for an account here and claim a $10 bonus when making your predictions.
Latest 2028 Democrat Nominee Odds From Kalshi
Gavin Newsom: 19% Chance
Gavin Newsom has been among the high-profile democrats for years now, but decided not to run for President up until this point. He has been the California Governor since 2019, and supported Kamala Harris in 2024. He also survived a special recall election in 2021.
At 57 years old, he would be a much younger candidate than seen in the last three presidential races, something the entire country wants. But he still has the strong experience in the political realm required to deal with the various domestic and international tensions.
CLICK HERE to bet on the latest Democrat Primary odds.
Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez: 15% Chance
Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez, better known as AOC, is firmly in the mix here to be the Democrat candidate. She has risen to stardom over the course of the last decade, getting elected to Congress in 2018. Her outspoken rhetoric on social media has earned her many fans with the younger generation, and she doesn't shy away from any fight across the aisle.
AOC is also on the odds board for Vice Presidential candidate if she doesn't end up running for President, and has a 9% chance in that market as well. She's 35 years old now, and may hold off running for another cycle, but she could definitely be in the mix one way or another.
What are the Chances these Democrat Candidates Win the Presidential Election?
There are more than just 2028 Democrat Primary odds available here on Kalshi. We can see these potential candidates and their chances to win the entire thing, which are obviously lower considering it takes a second outcome on top of becoming the party winner.
Right now, Gavin Newsom is still leading the democrats with a 13% chance to win the election, but he trails significantly behind JD Vance at 30%. The assumption is that Vice President Vance would take over as the Republican candidate as Trump's time winds down, but anything can happen in the next few years.
AOC is slightly behind Newsom at 8%, followed by Buttigieg at 5% and Andy Beshear of Kentucky at 4%. Those four seem to be the main figures right now, just based on early campaign activity and previous popularity levels.
How Does Kalshi Work and How Much Can I Win on the 2028 Democrat Primary?
Kalshi is a prediction market that allows you to wager on real-life events outside of sports, including politics, pop culture, and more. If you were to buy shares of Gavin Newsom at 19 cents, it would be equivalent to sportsbook odds of roughly +400. So $100 on Newsom right now would return roughly $500 plus interest if he were to be named the winner in 2028.
There is also a 4% APY interest available to be earned on these longer term markets, so you don't lose money while waiting for results multiple years down the line.
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