New York City Mayor Odds: Will Andrew Cuomo, Curtis Sliwa Drop Out in Final Days of NYC Mayor Race?
The race for NYC Mayor is nearly over, with Zohran Mamdani commanding a massive advantage as the voters head to the polls early next week. Will either Andrew Cuomo or Curtis Sliwa drop out before Tuesday's election day to give the other a better chance? Peter Alexis examines the slim dropout odds on Kalshi as October comes to a close.
Peter Alexis - October 30, 2025, 3:55 PM EDT
4 Minute ReadNew York City Mayor Odds: Will Anyone Drop Out of NYC Mayor Race Before Nov 4 Election Day?
The New York City mayoral race is entering its final sprint, with just five days remaining before voters head to the polls on Tuesday, November 4. Betting markets have left little doubt about the direction of the race. State Assemblyman Zohran Mamdani remains the commanding favorite at 93% on Kalshi after briefly dipping to 87% earlier in the week. The Queens Democrat has dominated both the narrative and the numbers, holding a wide polling lead as early voting continues across the city. His message centered on affordable housing, transit reform, and economic fairness has clearly resonated with voters looking for a shift in direction from City Hall.
Former governor Andrew Cuomo, now running as an independent after losing the Democratic primary to Mamdani, continues to trail far behind at 7%. Curtis Sliwa, the perennial Republican challenger, holds less than a 1% chance but has refused to bow out, keeping the race cluttered in its final stretch. With early voting already underway and momentum firmly on Mamdani’s side, the biggest question now is whether Cuomo or Sliwa will blink first and exit the race before Election Day, though the odds suggest that’s unlikely.
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Latest New York City Mayor Election Odds From Kalshi
Candidate | Implied Probability |
|---|---|
Zohran Mamdani | 93% |
Andrew Cuomo | 7% |
Curtis Sliwa | 1% |
Mamdani’s 93% mark reflects near-consensus confidence in his victory. His coalition of progressive voters and grassroots organizers has remained strong despite last-minute speculation about a tightening race. The odds signal not only his overwhelming support but also a lack of a coherent path for either independent challenger to make up ground. Every indicator, from polling to betting markets, points toward Mamdani cruising to a decisive win next Tuesday.
Latest NYC Mayor Drop Out Odds From Kalshi
Candidate | Probability of Dropping Out |
|---|---|
Curtis Sliwa | 7% |
Andrew Cuomo | 2% |
Cuomo and Sliwa, meanwhile, have turned their attention toward each other rather than the frontrunner. The two independents have spent the past week trading barbs and calling for one another to step aside in order to consolidate the anti-Mamdani vote. Cuomo’s odds of dropping out are just 2%, according to market models, as he has invested heavily in his late-stage campaign and seems determined to finish the race. Sliwa’s chances of withdrawing sit slightly higher at 7%, but his public comments suggest no intention of doing so. This back-and-forth has fractured what little opposition remained, effectively sealing Mamdani’s advantage.
Unless a last-minute shock disrupts the city’s political landscape, the odds suggest the race is all but over. Mamdani’s campaign continues to lead both in polling and organization, while his rivals are stuck battling for the same sliver of voters. With just days left and early ballots already being cast, the markets are betting on a historic victory for Zohran Mamdani and the solidification of New York City’s progressive political shift.
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