New York City Mayor Odds: Complete Election Odds, Margin of Victory as Zohran Mamdani Maintains Massive Lead

Election Day is finally here in New York City, and the betting markets are fully locked in as voters cast their ballots. Results will roll in Tuesday night, with State Assemblyman Zohran Mamdani expected to become the city’s next mayor in what could be a landmark victory for the progressive left. On Kalshi, Mamdani holds a commanding 92% chance to win, a figure that has barely budged over the past month. Former governor Andrew Cuomo, now running as an independent after losing the Democratic primary in the spring, sits at 9%, while perennial Republican candidate Curtis Sliwa lingers at 1%. The dynamic between Cuomo and Sliwa has essentially split the opposition vote, further cementing Mamdani’s overwhelming advantage.

This election has drawn intense market interest beyond just the winner, with Kalshi offering a range of political prop markets — including margin of victory, second-place finisher, and whether Mamdani wins a majority of the vote. Traders are analyzing turnout and coalition patterns as they gauge how large Mamdani’s final margin might be and whether Cuomo can solidify his hold on the runner-up spot. With the city’s political identity on the verge of a potential realignment, tonight’s results will signal whether New York is fully embracing Mamdani’s Democratic Socialist platform or simply riding a short-term wave of discontent with the political establishment.

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Latest New York City Mayor Election Odds From Kalshi

The main race remains a one-sided affair. Mamdani at 92% is a dominant favorite, showing no real signs of weakness as Election Day unfolds. His campaign has successfully maintained momentum since midsummer, and even as overall trading volume has surged in recent days, his implied odds have held steady. Cuomo (9%) and Sliwa (1%) continue to trail far behind, with little indication that either can close the gap.

NYC Mayor Second-Place Odds

Kalshi traders see Cuomo (91%) as the overwhelming favorite to finish second, with Mamdani (7%) and Sliwa (3%) trailing far behind. Cuomo’s independent run has earned him backing from centrist voters and moderate Democrats who see him as the most viable anti-Mamdani option. However, his campaign has struggled to build beyond that base, limiting his upside. Sliwa’s late push has been largely symbolic, more likely to dilute the anti-Mamdani vote than meaningfully shift the outcome.

Will Zohran Mamdani Win More than 50% of the Vote?

This market currently sits at 55%, down from 75% two weeks ago, suggesting mild uncertainty about just how large Mamdani’s margin will be. The decline doesn’t necessarily reflect a tightening race — rather, it likely indicates increased activity and hedging among traders. Mamdani doesn’t need to clear 50% to win given the split opposition, but a majority would signal a decisive mandate heading into his first term.

Zohran Mamdani Margin of Victory Odds

The most volatile of the markets, the margin of victory odds show a wide range of possibilities: 0–3% (6%), 3–6% (7%), 9–12% (12%), 12–15% (13%), and 24%+ (25%). Despite some distribution across middle ranges, traders are leaning heavily toward a landslide scenario, with a quarter of all market positions backing a blowout victory of more than 24 percentage points. Whether it’s a comfortable win or an overwhelming one, Mamdani’s path to becoming New York City’s next mayor appears all but assured.

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