Kevin Hassett favourite to be nominated by Trump as Fed Chair

Kevin Hassett favourite to be nominated by Trump as Fed Chair

Prediction markets continue to react to President Trump’s public hints and reporting around the search for the next Federal Reserve Chair - a decision expected in early 2026, when Jerome Powell’s term expires.

Right now, Kevin Hassett, Trump’s National Economic Council Director, is the favourite on Kalshi. It currently costs 58¢ to buy “Yes” on Hassett being the nominee, implying a 58% chance he is selected. Converted into traditional US Moneyline odds, this equates to approximately –138.

Hassett has been widely reported as a frontrunner for months, with multiple outlets noting Trump’s praise and his presence at the top of the shortlist.

Some reporting has also highlighted internal concerns about his closeness to Trump and the implications for Fed independence, but markets still price him as the most likely pick.

If you are new to Kalshi and want to bet on markets like this New York Mayoral Election, you can sign up for an account here and claim a $10 bonus when making your predictions.

Next Fed Chair Odds From Kalshi

Kevin Warsh (Former Fed Governor)

• Yes: 25¢
• No: 76¢

Buying “Yes” on Kevin Warsh costs 25¢, implying a 25% chance he is nominated. This corresponds to roughly +300 on the Moneyline.

Warsh has surged in recent weeks after Trump told The Wall Street Journal that Warsh had moved “to the top tier” of contenders. Several outlets have reported that Warsh and Hassett are now viewed as “the two Kevins” leading the race.

Christopher Waller (Federal Reserve Governor)

• Yes: 13¢
• No: 88¢

A 13¢ price implies a 13% chance Waller is nominated, translating to approximately +669.

Rick Rieder (BlackRock CIO)

• Yes: 5¢
• No: 96¢

At 5¢, Rieder has a 5% chance of being nominated, equivalent to roughly +1900.

Trump has reportedly interviewed Rieder as part of the final group of candidates, but prediction markets view him as a long‑shot.

Scott Bessent (Treasury Secretary)

• Yes: 3¢
• No: 98¢

A 3¢ price implies a 3% chance, or about +3200.

Judy Shelton (Former Fed Board Nominee)

• Yes: 3¢
• No: 99¢

Shelton also sits at 3%, translating to +3200.

Michelle Bowman (Fed Vice Chair for Supervision)

• Yes: 3¢
• No: 98¢

Bowman’s 3¢ price implies a 3% chance, or +3200.

Who Is Favoured to Be the Next Fed Chair?

Based on the latest Kalshi trades, Kevin Hassett is the clear favourite at 58%, though his lead has narrowed in recent days as Kevin Warsh’s odds have risen following Trump’s public comments.

The race is widely viewed as a two‑man contest between Hassett and Warsh, with Waller, Bowman, and Rieder forming a second tier of possibilities.

Trump has said he expects to announce his pick early in 2026.

How Kalshi Works - and What These Prices Mean

Kalshi operates differently from a sportsbook. Instead of betting odds, traders buy contracts priced between 1¢ and 99¢.

• If the event happens, the contract settles at $1.
• If it does not, it settles at $0.

For example: A 58¢ “Yes” contract on Kevin Hassett means:

• You pay $0.58 per contract.
• If Hassett is nominated, it becomes $1, giving you a 42¢ profit per contract.
• If he is not, it becomes $0, and you lose your stake.

A $100 position at 58¢ would buy 172 contracts, returning $172 if Hassett is nominated.

Kalshi Fees

At the sportsbook, you are paying a vig, which is factored into any lines the sportsbook has created on any given market. With Kalshi, there is no vig, but there are still fees to consider.

There is a trading fee applied to your transactions, for example:

If the price for one contract was $0.01, the associated fee for one contract would be $0.01. If you were to buy 100 contracts at this price for $1.00, your trading fee would be $0.07.

The most you will ever pay on a $100 trade, no matter the price, is $1.74, so there is plenty of value in making your trades on Kalshi's platform.

Secure a $10 Bonus When You Sign Up and Make Trades With Kalshi

If you are new to the Kalshi platform, you can claim a $10 bonus with our new user promotion!

Sign up below or throughout the article to claim your $10 bonus when making your trades on the predictions platform.

To unlock your $10 bonus, you will need to trade $100 on the platform.