Portugal Presidential Election Odds: Luís Marques Mendes Leading the Race

Portugal Presidential Election Odds: Andre Ventura Leading the Race

The 2026 Portuguese Presidential Election - scheduled for 18 January 2026 with a potential runoff on 8 February 2026 - is shaping up to be one of the most competitive contests in decades.

With incumbent President Marcelo Rebelo de Sousa constitutionally barred from seeking a third term, the race is wide open, and Kalshi traders are pricing a tight field led by André Ventura, the Chega (CH) party leader.

Right now, it costs 52¢ to buy the “Yes” contract on André Ventura to win the presidency, implying a 52% chance of victory.

Converted into typical US Moneyline odds, this equates to approximately –108. Ventura has consistently polled near the top of first‑round surveys, often between 21% and 22% in December polling.

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Luís Marques Mendes (PSD)

Yes: 34¢ No: 67¢

A 34¢ “Yes” price implies a 34% chance that Luís Marques Mendes becomes Portugal’s next president, translating to roughly +194 in Moneyline terms.

Marques Mendes - a former PSD leader - is widely viewed as one of the strongest potential second‑round candidates. Multiple polls show him either tied with Ventura or outperforming him in hypothetical runoffs.

António José Seguro (PS)

Yes: 8¢ No: 93¢

At 8¢, Seguro carries an 8% chance of winning, equivalent to approximately +1150.

Seguro, a former leader of the Socialist Party (PS), has recently polled ahead of Ventura in some surveys and is considered a credible contender in a fragmented field.

Henrique Gouveia e Melo (Independent)

Yes: 6¢ No: 95¢

A 6¢ price implies a 6% chance, or roughly +1567.

Gouveia e Melo - the former head of Portugal’s COVID‑19 vaccination task force - has been a major figure in the race. Polls show him hovering around 20%, often tied with Ventura and Marques Mendes in first‑round projections.

João Cotrim Figueiredo (IL)

Yes: 6¢ No: 95¢

Also priced at 6¢, Cotrim Figueiredo carries a 6% chance of winning, translating to +1567.

He is the former leader of the Liberal Initiative (IL) and is running as a pro‑market, reform‑focused candidate.

Rui Moreira (Independent)

Yes: 1¢

At just 1¢, Moreira has a 1% chance of winning - equivalent to +9900 or longer.

The longtime Mayor of Porto is respected nationally but is not considered a frontrunner in this presidential field.

Catarina Martins (BE)

Yes: 2¢ No: 99¢

A 2¢ price implies a 2% chance, or roughly +4900.

Martins, former leader of the Left Bloc (BE), has a loyal base but remains a long‑shot in a crowded race.

Tim Vieira (Independent)

Yes: 1¢

Vieira, an entrepreneur and media figure, is priced at 1%, translating to +9900 or longer.

António Filipe (CDU)

Yes: 2¢ No: 99¢

Filipe, representing the CDU (Communist‑Green coalition), sits at 2%, or +4900 in Moneyline terms.

Who Is Favoured to Be the Next President of Portugal?

Based on the latest Kalshi trades, André Ventura is the narrow favourite with a 52% chance of winning. However, polling suggests a highly competitive first round, with Ventura, Marques Mendes, and Gouveia e Melo often separated by only a few points.

How Kalshi Works - and What These Prices Mean

Kalshi operates differently from a sportsbook. Instead of betting odds, traders buy contracts priced between 1¢ and 99¢.

• If the event happens, the contract settles at $1.
• If it does not, it settles at $0.

For example: A 52¢ “Yes” contract on Ventura means:

• You pay $0.52 per contract.
• If Ventura wins, it becomes $1, giving you a 48¢ profit per contract.
• If he loses, it becomes $0, and you lose your stake.

A $100 position at 52¢ would buy 192 contracts, returning $192 if Ventura wins.

Kalshi Fees

Kalshi does not charge vig like a sportsbook, but it does apply small transaction fees.

• A 1¢ contract carries a 1¢ fee.
• A $100 trade will never incur more than $1.74 in fees.

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