Next NFL Coach Fired Odds 2025: Stefanski Leads Odds Board as Steelers Fans Grow Restless With Tomlin
Next NFL Coach Fired odds for 2025 are tightening, with Kevin Stefanski leading the market and Steelers fans growing restless amid Mike Tomlin’s playoff purgatory.
Christian Drake - December 30, 2025, 11:45 AM EST
4 Minute ReadNext NFL Coach Fired Odds: Kevin Stefanski Emerges as 2025 Favorite
Coaching volatility has become one of the defining features of the modern NFL, and the 2025 season is already shaping up to be no different. As front offices grow less patient and expectations rise, even established head coaches find themselves on increasingly unstable ground.
That reality is now fully reflected in the Next NFL Coach Fired betting market on Kalshi. With the season approaching its most scrutinized stretch, traders have begun to separate true hot-seat candidates from long-shot noise, and one name has clearly risen to the top.
Cleveland Browns head coach Kevin Stefanski is now the betting favorite to be the next NFL coach dismissed, holding a 32% implied probability, narrowly ahead of Pete Carroll and a crowded mid-tier of vulnerable coaches.
Bet on the Next Coach Fired with Kalshi Here
Next NFL Coach Fired Odds
Coach | Team | Implied Probability |
Kevin Stefanski | Cleveland Browns | 32% |
Pete Carroll | Las Vegas Raiders | 27% |
Aaron Glenn | New York Jets | 20% |
Todd Bowles | Tampa Bay Buccaneers | 16% |
Jonathan Gannon | Arizona Cardinals | 15% |
Raheem Morris | Atlanta Falcons | 4% |
Mike Tomlin | Pittsburgh Steelers | 1% |
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Next NFL Coach Fired Odds Breakdown
Kevin Stefanski, Browns (32%) Bet Stefanski with Kalshi Here
Stefanski’s position atop the board reflects mounting pressure in Cleveland rather than a single catastrophic failure. Despite past success, expectations have risen sharply, and inconsistent offensive production paired with roster investment has put the Browns squarely in a “results now” posture.
Kalshi traders have pushed Stefanski’s contract price to 32¢, signaling a belief that Cleveland ownership could act decisively if late-season results fail to justify the organization’s long-term commitment.
At this stage, no coach has a clearer path to becoming the first domino to fall.
Pete Carroll, Raiders (27%) Bet on Carroll with Kalshi Here
Pete Carroll’s return to the sidelines in Las Vegas has been anything but quiet. While his resume commands respect, the Raiders’ volatile roster and uneven performances have fueled speculation about whether this pairing is sustainable beyond a single season.
At 27%, Carroll sits firmly in second place, close enough to Stefanski that a bad final game could flip the market entirely. The combination of ownership impatience and division pressure keeps Carroll squarely in the danger zone.
Aaron Glenn, Jets (20%) Bet on Glenn with Kalshi Here
Aaron Glenn’s first year with the Jets has produced mixed signals. Defensive improvement has been evident, but offensive inconsistency and sky-high preseason expectations have weighed heavily on public perception.
A 20% implied probability reflects uncertainty rather than inevitability. Glenn isn’t on the brink yet, but the margin for error is shrinking rapidly in New York.
Todd Bowles, Buccaneers (16%) Bet on Bowles with Kalshi Here
Bowles remains one of the league’s most steady head coaches. Defensive structure and locker-room credibility keep him employed, but offensive stagnation and postseason expectations continue to loom.
At 16%, Bowles represents a classic “quietly vulnerable” candidate, not in crisis, but far from secure if Tampa Bay slides down the stretch.
Jonathan Gannon, Cardinals (15%) Bet on Gannon with Kalshi Here
Gannon’s tenure in Arizona has been defined by rebuilding patience, but markets are beginning to question how long that leash truly is. A 15% probability reflects growing skepticism that development alone will be enough to justify continuity.
Absent tangible progress, Gannon could move from sleeper candidate to active contender quickly.
Mike Tomlin, Steelers (1%) Bet on Tomlin with Kalshi Here
While Mike Tomlin’s firing odds remain extremely low at 1%, the market may be underestimating the emotional pressure building in Pittsburgh.
Steelers fans increasingly find themselves trapped in what can best be described as NFL purgatory, never bad enough to reset, never good enough to seriously contend. Year after year of winning records without playoff progress has created a unique frustration: stability without upside.
That stagnation has fueled louder calls from portions of the fanbase for organizational change, and Tomlin, despite his Super Bowl pedigree and spotless non-losing record, has become the symbolic face of that debate. The frustration isn’t about collapse; it’s about ceiling.
From a market perspective, Tomlin’s odds correctly reflect ownership reality. Pittsburgh has historically valued continuity above all else, making an in-season firing highly unlikely. But if postseason disappointment strikes again, the offseason conversation could be far more volatile than the 1% price suggests.
Tomlin isn’t on the hot seat, but he is at the center of one of the league’s most emotionally charged fan debates.
Long Shots
Raheem Morris (4%) remains largely insulated, while Mike Tomlin (1%) and Andy Reid (<1%) are effectively priced as immovable objects. These odds reflect organizational trust overall.
The Next NFL Coach Fired market is tightening, not flattening. Rather than chaos, Kalshi traders are converging around a clear top tier, with Kevin Stefanski and Pete Carroll emerging as the most vulnerable options as the season progresses.
Unless results shift dramatically, the next coaching change is likely to come from this group and the market is already pricing in that inevitability.
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