Texas Republican Senate Nominee Odds: Ken Paxton Clear Republican Favorite as Polls Close
The Texas Republican Senate primary race favors attorney general Ken Paxton, with John Cornyn trailing behind. Is it Paxton's race to lose? Peter Alexis breaks down the Texas Republican Senate Nominee odds for the primary on Tuesday, March 3rd.
Peter Alexis - March 3, 2026, 7:20 PM EST
4 Minute ReadTexas Republican Senate Primary Odds: Is Ken Paxton the Right Choice As Republicans Ward Off Democrat Momentum?
The Republican primary in Texas may ultimately determine who holds the Senate seat in November, but it is far from a straightforward race. Republicans are trying to maintain control in a state that has historically leaned strongly red, even as Democrats slowly build momentum and hope the right matchup could make Texas competitive. That reality has added pressure to the GOP primary, where party leaders and voters are weighing not only who can win the nomination but also who gives Republicans the best chance to hold the seat in the general election.
Prediction markets currently show Texas Attorney General Ken Paxton as the clear favorite with roughly an 81% chance of securing the Republican nomination, followed by incumbent Senator John Cornyn at around 20%, while Congressman Wesley Hunt trails with under 1%. The market reflects a primary that has increasingly become a battle between Paxton’s populist conservative base and Cornyn’s long-established presence in Washington. The outcome could shape not only the Texas race but the broader Senate balance in the 2026 midterms.
Bet on the Texas Republican Senate Race and more politics props with Kalshi Here
Latest Texas Republican Senate Primary Odds From Kalshi
Candidate | Implied Probability |
|---|---|
Ken Paxton | 81% |
John Cornyn | 20% |
Wesley Hunt | 1% |
Ken Paxton: 81% Chance
Ken Paxton has emerged as the betting market favorite, with an 81% implied probability of winning the Republican nomination. The longtime Texas attorney general has built strong support among the party’s most conservative voters and remains closely aligned with the MAGA wing of the GOP. His campaign has leaned heavily into loyalty to former President Donald Trump and a populist approach that resonates strongly with many Republican primary voters.
At the same time, Paxton remains one of the most polarizing figures in the race. He has faced a number of legal controversies and was previously impeached before being acquitted, issues that some Republican leaders worry could complicate the general election. Despite those concerns, Paxton’s standing with the Republican base appears strong, and markets currently see him as the candidate most likely to emerge from the primary.
John Cornyn: 20% Chance
Incumbent Senator John Cornyn represents the establishment wing of the Republican Party and has spent more than two decades in Washington. Cornyn has significant advantages in experience and fundraising, with major support from GOP leadership and political allies who believe he would be the safer candidate in a general election matchup against Democrats.
However, Cornyn has faced criticism from the party’s conservative base, particularly for bipartisan legislative work and positions that some primary voters view as insufficiently aligned with the Trump movement. Those tensions have helped fuel Paxton’s challenge. Polling and political analysts have suggested that the race could ultimately head toward a runoff between Cornyn and Paxton if neither candidate clears the 50% threshold in the primary.
The Stakes for Republicans
The Texas Republican primary has quickly become one of the most closely watched races of the 2026 midterm cycle. More than $95 million has already been spent in the battle between the candidates, highlighting the importance of the seat for both the state and national politics.
While Texas remains a Republican-leaning state, Democrats believe the right political environment could make the race competitive. That possibility is one reason why some GOP leaders have expressed concern that a polarizing nominee could open the door for a stronger Democratic challenge in November. For now, however, the betting market sees Paxton firmly in control of the Republican primary, with Cornyn still attempting to mount a late push to keep his seat in Washington.
More of oddschecker
Affiliate Disclosure.
We are not a gambling or betting operator, but we receive a commission from these companies when we advertise their brands and refer customers to them (affiliate marketing). We provide information, odds information and links to websites of these companies. Some of the information made available on our site may be positioned as a result of a commission paid to us by a third party. We do not take or place bets/transactions and any information on Our Products is provided for entertainment purposes only.
