California Governor Odds: Who Will Replace Gavin Newsom in California's Top Office?

California Governor Odds: Is Tom Steyer Trying to Buy the Race?

California’s governor’s race is starting to feel real now that the election is just six months away. The Kalshi market has Tom Steyer at 41%, Xavier Becerra at 35%, and Steve Hilton at 9.9%, a much tighter picture than the one traders were staring at in April, when Steyer briefly pushed above 66% before the field compressed again.

That tightening fits the broader campaign story. California’s race remains crowded, messy, and unusually fluid, with recent debates producing more chaos than clarity and with the state’s top-two primary system keeping pressure on every major contender to consolidate support quickly. The market now looks much more like a two-man battle between Steyer and Becerra than the blowout Steyer seemed to be building toward just a few weeks ago.

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Latest California Governor Election Odds From Kalshi

Tom Steyer (41%)

Steyer is still the market leader, but his edge is no longer overwhelming. That makes sense because he has both real strengths and obvious vulnerabilities. He is a billionaire climate activist with massive resources, and CalMatters reported last week that he had already spent about $132 million on the race, dwarfing most rivals. That spending helped fuel his earlier move above 66% in the market, but it has also intensified attacks that he is trying to buy the office and left him exposed to criticism over his past investments and his clashes with business groups like PG&E and the California Chamber of Commerce.

Steyer is also trying to broaden his message beyond climate and anti-corporate populism. CalMatters reported today that he is leaning into tech and AI regulation, an issue that could become more central in California as the race develops. That gives him a distinctive policy lane, but it also means he is carrying a larger target as the perceived frontrunner. The odds drift from the mid-60s down to 41% suggest traders still see him as the favorite, just not the runaway one anymore.

Bet on the Tom Steyer to Win California Governor Race Here

Xavier Becerra (35%)

Becerra is the clear momentum candidate right now. Reuters reported in mid-April that he had just qualified for the debate stage, and CalMatters then described his jump from 4% to 13% in Democratic tracking as one of the biggest developments in the race. The market move on Kalshi fits that story. He is no longer just a known Democratic name, but a real co-leader in waiting who has turned this into what looks like a genuine two-man contest.

Part of Becerra’s appeal is how familiar he is to California voters and party insiders. He brings a résumé as former California attorney general and a former cabinet official, which gives him an establishment credibility that stands out in a field full of louder personalities. At the same time, he has also been in the middle of sharper recent campaign tactics. The Los Angeles Times reported that his campaign used “red boxing” style messaging against Steyer, showing that Becerra is not just rising on résumé alone but is now fighting like someone who thinks he can win. His 35% price reflects that traders think he is the one most capable of overtaking Steyer.

Steve Hilton (9.9%)

Hilton has slipped into a more distant third in this market, but he still matters because he remains the leading Republican name on the board. Reuters reported in early April that Donald Trump endorsed Hilton, which instantly gave him a boost and helped frame him as the candidate most likely to consolidate the Republican lane. In a state with a top-two primary, that kind of consolidation matters even if the general-election ceiling is lower.

The problem for Hilton is that the Democratic side has gotten more organized since then. The debate stage has been crowded and contentious, but the race is now increasingly defined by Steyer and Becerra as the main Democratic heavyweights. Hilton’s 9.9% shows he still has a path to relevance, especially if Democratic vote-splitting returns as a bigger concern, but for now the market is treating him more as an outside disruptor than a true co-favorite.

California Governor Outlook

Overall, the board now says what the campaign trail increasingly suggests: Steyer is still in front, Becerra is charging, and Hilton is hanging around waiting for another shift. With six months to go and a volatile race that has already changed shape multiple times, this is still a market where another sharp move would not be surprising.

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