NY-07 Congressional Primary Odds: Claire Valdez Leads in Tuesday's Race for Nydia Velazquez' Seat
The NY-07 Democratic primary is another major open-seat race in New York, with longtime Rep. Nydia Velázquez not seeking reelection after more than three decades in Congress. Kalshi traders have Claire Valdez as the clear favorite on primary day, with Antonio Reynoso still alive but running well behind.
Peter Alexis - June 23, 2026, 11:30 AM EDT
4 Minute ReadNY-07 Congressional Primary Odds: Can Claire Valdez Take Over Nydia Velazquez Seat in Tuesday's Primary?
Claire Valdez is the Kalshi favorite to win the NY-07 Democratic nomination, trading at 76% on primary day. Antonio Reynoso is second at 26%, while Julie Won sits at 0.4%.
This market has been controlled by Valdez for most of the race, and she remains above 75% as voting begins. Reynoso has ticked up slightly, but the overall shape of the market still points to Valdez as the candidate to beat in the race to replace Velázquez.
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Latest NY-07 Primary Odds from Kalshi
Candidate | Implied Probability |
|---|---|
Claire Valdez | 72% |
Antonio Reynoso | 29% |
Claire Valdez (76%)
Valdez has been the market leader throughout much of the NY-07 race, and her current 76% price shows that traders believe she has created real separation. She is down slightly on the latest move, but the broader trend still shows her holding a commanding advantage over Reynoso and the rest of the field.
Her strength is tied to the Mamdani and DSA-backed wing of New York politics. Valdez has become one of the clearest tests of whether that movement can win open congressional seats, not just challenge incumbents or influence local races. In a district that spans parts of Brooklyn and Queens, her campaign has benefited from the energy of voters looking for a more confrontational left-wing direction.
The key market signal is that Valdez has not needed a late comeback. She has been in front, stayed in front, and now enters primary day with a large enough lead that a loss would qualify as a notable upset. The final hours are about whether Reynoso’s institutional support can close the gap, but Kalshi traders are clearly treating Valdez as the likely nominee.
Antonio Reynoso (26%)
Reynoso is still the main alternative, sitting at 26% after a small move upward. He has not been fully written off, but he enters primary day needing the market to be underestimating his turnout operation and name recognition.
His case is built around experience and coalition politics. Reynoso is the Brooklyn Borough President and has Velázquez’s backing, which matters in a race to replace a longtime incumbent who shaped the district for decades. His campaign has argued for a broader progressive coalition rather than a narrower DSA-aligned lane, making this race about political style as much as policy.
The challenge is that the market has not moved enough in his direction. Reynoso has remained competitive at points, and the late uptick shows he still has some trader confidence, but he has not been able to turn the race into a true toss-up. At 26%, he is the only candidate with a realistic upset path, but it would take a strong turnout surprise to beat Valdez.
NY-07 Democratic Primary Odds Outlook
NY-07 is a major test of New York’s progressive power map. Velázquez’s retirement created an open seat for the first time in decades, and the race quickly became a battle between Valdez’s Mamdani-aligned left-wing support and Reynoso’s broader progressive institutional coalition.
Kalshi traders are siding heavily with Valdez. At 76%, she is not just narrowly ahead, she is pulling away. Reynoso’s 26% keeps the upset conversation alive, but the market suggests he would need a late turnout surprise to reverse the race on primary day.
The result will be watched beyond NY-07 because it could show whether Mamdani’s endorsement network can help send a new generation of democratic socialist candidates to Congress. Based on the current market, Valdez is positioned to win the nomination and turn this open seat into one of the clearest left-wing victories of the New York primary cycle.
- Kalshi Leader: Claire Valdez (76%) Bet on the NY Congressional Primary Races with Kalshi Here
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