NY-13 Congressional Primary Odds: Adriano Espaillat Holds Lead as Incumbent in Tuesday's Primary
The NY-13 Democratic primary has become one of the most closely watched House races in New York, with incumbent Adriano Espaillat trying to hold off progressive challenger Darializa Avila Chevalier. Kalshi traders have moved back toward Espaillat on primary day, but the market still shows a race that was far more competitive than expected just weeks ago.
Peter Alexis - June 23, 2026, 10:00 AM EDT
4 Minute ReadNY-13 Congressional Primary Odds: Adriano Espaillat Expected to Hold Seat as Incumbent in Tuesday's Primary
Adriano Espaillat is the clear Kalshi favorite to win the NY-13 Democratic nomination, currently trading at 68% on primary day. Darializa Avila Chevalier is second at 35%, while Megan Rodriguez sits below 1%.
This has not been a steady incumbent market from start to finish. Espaillat and Chevalier were nearly even just a few weeks ago, and Chevalier briefly moved into the lead before Espaillat reclaimed control late. That late swing makes NY-13 one of the most interesting Democratic primary markets in New York this week.
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Latest NY-13 Primary Odds from Kalshi
Candidate | Implied Probability |
|---|---|
Adriano Espaillat | 68% |
Darializa Avila Chevalier | 35% |
Adriano Espaillat (68%)
Espaillat enters primary day with the advantage, and his market move suggests traders believe the incumbent has stabilized the race at the right time. He is a five-term congressman, a major figure in New York Democratic politics, and the chair of the Congressional Hispanic Caucus, which gives him institutional strength that is difficult for a challenger to overcome in a low-turnout primary.
The concern for Espaillat is that this race got much closer than a normal incumbent primary should. Chevalier’s rise exposed real dissatisfaction inside the district, especially around affordability, housing, displacement, and frustration with establishment Democrats. Espaillat may still be favored, but the fact that he had to fight this hard says plenty about the changing politics of Upper Manhattan and the Bronx.
The late move back toward Espaillat may reflect name recognition, turnout confidence, and the power of incumbency. Kalshi had him under serious pressure when Chevalier surged, but traders now appear to be pricing in the idea that his older, more reliable base shows up when voting actually begins.
Darializa Avila Chevalier (35%)
Chevalier is the reason this market became competitive. She briefly overtook Espaillat on Kalshi after a strong progressive push and has remained close enough to keep the incumbent from fully escaping.
Her campaign has been powered by the left flank of New York politics, with backing from Zohran Mamdani, Bernie Sanders, the DSA, and Justice Democrats. That support made this race a test of whether the Mamdani-aligned progressive movement can move beyond city politics and directly threaten entrenched members of Congress.
The problem for Chevalier is that the late market momentum has moved away from her. She needed the race to stay neck and neck into primary day, but Kalshi traders have pushed Espaillat back toward a clear favorite position. Still, at 35%, she is not being treated like a token challenger, and a strong turnout operation from younger, progressive, and anti-establishment voters could still make this tighter than the top-line price suggests.
NY-13 Democratic Primary Odds Outlook
NY-13 may be the closest Democratic congressional primary market in New York this week because it has already shown real volatility. Chevalier took the lead briefly, Espaillat recovered, and the final primary-day price still leaves enough uncertainty to make the race worth watching.
The broader storyline is bigger than one district. This is a test of incumbent strength, progressive organizing, and Mamdani’s ability to shape congressional primaries after building power in New York. If Chevalier wins, it would be a major signal that the city’s left wing can knock off a deeply rooted incumbent. If Espaillat holds, it would show that the establishment still has enough turnout strength to withstand the challenge.
Espaillat is the favorite at 68%, and the late movement clearly favors him. Chevalier’s 35% price keeps the upset path alive, but she likely needs a strong turnout surprise to flip the market back again.
- Kalshi Market Favorite: Adriano Espaillat (68%) Bet on the NY Congressional Primary Races and more politics props with Kalshi Here
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