NY-12 Congressional Primary Odds: Micah Lasher Favored to Take Over Retiring Jerry Nadler's Seat
The NY-12 Democratic primary has become one of New York’s highest-profile open-seat races, with Jerry Nadler stepping aside after more than three decades in Congress. Kalshi traders now give Micah Lasher a clear lead over Alex Bores, while Jack Schlossberg’s early name-driven momentum has faded almost entirely by primary day.
Peter Alexis - June 23, 2026, 10:30 AM EDT
4 Minute ReadNY-12 Congressional Primary Odds: Will Micah Lasher Take Over Jerry Nadler's Seat?
Micah Lasher is the Kalshi favorite to win the NY-12 Democratic nomination, trading at 72% on primary day. Alex Bores is second at 29%, while Jack Schlossberg sits at 0.7%.
This race looked much tighter in May, when Lasher and Bores were effectively tied in the market. Since then, Lasher has steadily rebuilt his lead, while Bores has slipped back and Schlossberg has fallen from a brief period of relevance into longshot territory.
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Latest NY-12 Primary Odds from Kalshi
Candidate | Implied Probability |
|---|---|
Micah Lasher | 72% |
Alex Bores | 29% |
Jack Schlossberg | 0.7% |
Micah Lasher (72%)
Lasher’s odds have moved back into clear favorite territory after a choppy spring. He had been challenged by Bores in May, but the past month has brought a steady rebound, with Kalshi traders now putting him above 70% as voting begins.
His advantage is built around institutional support and familiarity in the district. Lasher is a state assemblyman, a former aide to Nadler, and the candidate endorsed by Nadler to succeed him. In an open-seat race where voters are replacing one of the most recognizable liberal members of Congress, that connection matters because it gives Lasher a continuity argument.
The market now appears to be pricing Lasher as the candidate with the strongest closing operation. He may not have generated the same national media attention as Bores’ AI fight or Schlossberg’s Kennedy story, but his late movement suggests traders believe endorsements, organization, and district-level political relationships are carrying more weight as the race reaches primary day.
Alex Bores (29%)
Bores remains the main challenger at 29%, but his market position has weakened since May. He was tied with Lasher during the most competitive stretch of the race, only to lose ground as Lasher rebuilt a wider lead.
Bores has been one of the most discussed candidates in the race because of his role in the national debate over AI regulation. His work on AI safety legislation turned NY-12 into a proxy fight over tech policy, with outside money pouring into the race and turning what could have been a local Manhattan primary into a national policy battleground.
That attention has kept Bores relevant, but it has not been enough to keep him even with Lasher on Kalshi. The market now shows him as a live challenger rather than a co-favorite. His path depends on whether voters respond more strongly to his tech-policy profile and reform message than to Lasher’s local ties and Nadler-backed campaign structure.
Jack Schlossberg (0.7%)
Schlossberg’s candidacy brought national attention to the race because he is John F. Kennedy’s grandson. That name recognition helped make him one of the most visible figures early, and he was trading around 25% last month before the market moved sharply away from him.
His campaign blended Kennedy legacy, social media reach, and political celebrity, which gave the race an unusual national profile. However, as the primary came into focus, traders moved toward Lasher and Bores as the two viable contenders, leaving Schlossberg below 1%.
At 0.7%, Schlossberg’s market position shows how much the race narrowed late. The Kennedy connection created attention, but it did not translate into a sustained winning path once voters and traders began treating the race as a contest between Lasher’s institutional backing and Bores’ policy-driven campaign.
NY-12 Democratic Primary Odds Outlook
The NY-12 market now looks far more settled than it did in May. Lasher and Bores were tied during the most competitive phase, but Lasher’s late climb to 72% shows traders believe the race has broken back toward the Nadler-backed candidate.
Bores is still close enough at 29% to keep the race competitive, especially given the money, media attention, and AI-policy stakes around his campaign. But he no longer enters primary day as an equal co-favorite. Schlossberg’s collapse to 0.7% is the clearest sign that the field has narrowed and that the race has moved beyond early celebrity-driven intrigue.
The result will determine who replaces one of New York’s longest-serving members of Congress. Kalshi’s current pricing gives Lasher the advantage, Bores the upset path, and Schlossberg only a remote chance after a sharp late decline.
- Kalshi Leader: Micah Lasher (72%) Bet on the NY Congressional Primary Races with Kalshi Here
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