Maine Senate Odds 2026: Jackson vs Collins
Track the latest 2026 Maine Senate odds for Troy Jackson vs. Susan Collins on Kalshi and Polymarket. See market trends, polling data, and election forecasts.
Sam Eaton - November 2, 2026, 2:30 PM EST
3 Minute ReadMaine Senate Odds 2026: Jackson vs Collins
Democrat Troy Jackson is the favorite to unseat Republican Senator Susan Collins in Maine. As of Nov 2, Kalshi priced Jackson at 73% and Collins at 27%, with Polymarket at 75% to 27%. Collins has held the seat since 1997 and is seeking a sixth term, and she has beaten the polls before.
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Maine Senate odds
Candidate | Kalshi (Nov 2) | Polymarket (Nov 2) |
|---|---|---|
Troy Jackson (D) | 64% | 66% |
Susan Collins (R) | 37% | 35% |
The Maine market has drawn real money on both platforms. Around November 2, Kalshi had traded about $19.5 million on the race and Polymarket US about $3.3 million.
How the Maine odds have moved
Jackson was around 62% on Kalshi in late September, slipped to 57% by October 16 after the final debate in Bangor, then recovered into the mid-60s. Our latest Maine Senate odds update had Jackson at 64% and Collins at 37% on November 2.
The candidates
Susan Collins (R) was first elected in 1996. She is the only Republican senator representing a state Kamala Harris won in 2024.
Troy Jackson (D) is a former logger and former president of the Maine Senate, who served in the Legislature from 2002 to 2024.
Independent Phillip Rench is also on the ballot, and Maine uses ranked-choice voting in the general election, so the race could go to further rounds if no one wins a majority of first choices.
What the polls say
Polls show a near tie. The polling average in early November has Jackson at 50.1% and Collins at 46.2%. Marist had Jackson ahead 49% to 47%, while other late-October polls showed the race level. Collins trailed in many polls in 2020 and still won comfortably, which is the main reason some traders see value in her price.
Why Maine matters
Democrats need a net gain of four seats to win the Senate, and Maine is one of their likeliest pickups. Democrats haven't won a Senate election in Maine since 1988. See where the other key races stand on our US politics odds page.
Maine Senate odds FAQs
Who is favored to win the Maine Senate race?
Troy Jackson (D), at 72-75% across Kalshi and Polymarket in early November.
What are Susan Collins' odds?
About 26-28%, depending on the platform and the day.
Does ranked-choice voting affect the Maine market?
It can delay the result if no candidate passes 50% in the first round. Check each market's settlement rules.
Where can I bet on the Maine Senate race?
On Kalshi and Polymarket US. Sportsbooks can't take election bets.
Odds are from Kalshi and Polymarket on the dates shown and change constantly. Market prices are not predictions or endorsements. Kalshi and Polymarket US are CFTC-regulated exchanges. Age and state eligibility rules apply, and promo terms apply. The Polymarket offer is not available in Nevada. Trading event contracts carries a risk of loss. If you or someone you know has a gambling problem, call 1-800-GAMBLER.
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