Texas Senate Odds 2026: Talarico vs Paxton
Kalshi and Polymarket odds favor Democrat James Talarico over Republican Ken Paxton in the 2026 Texas Senate race, despite polls showing a dead heat.
Sam Eaton - November 2, 2026, 7:00 AM EST
3 Minute ReadTexas Senate Odds 2026: Talarico vs Paxton
Democrat James Talarico is the favorite to win the 2026 Texas Senate race. As of October 29, Kalshi prices Talarico at 69% and Republican Ken Paxton at 32%, with Polymarket close behind at 70% to 31%. No Democrat has won a Senate race in Texas since 1988, which is why this has become one of the most-watched contests of the midterms.
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Texas Senate odds
Candidate | Kalshi | Polymarket |
|---|---|---|
James Talarico (D) | 73% | 76% |
Ken Paxton (R) | 27% | 26% |
Prices as of November 2, 2026. Across both platforms, Talarico is heavily favored to win, with Kalshi pricing his odds at 73% and Polymarket at 76%, while Paxton trails at 27% and 26% respectively.
How the Texas Senate odds have moved
Talarico has been the market favorite since the general election began, but the size of his edge has grown. Kalshi had him at 67% on October 7 after leaked audio of Paxton talking to donors, then 62% by mid-October. By late October he had settled in the mid-to-high 60s, even as President Trump held a rally for Paxton in Lubbock.
It's also one of the busiest Senate markets on either platform. Polymarket's Texas market had traded about $11 million by November 2.
The candidates
James Talarico (D) is a state representative and former teacher who won the Democratic nomination this year.
Ken Paxton (R) has been Texas attorney general since 2015. He beat incumbent Senator John Cornyn in a May 26 runoff after winning President Trump's endorsement. Paxton was impeached by the Texas House in 2023 and acquitted by the state Senate.
What the polls say
The polls are much tighter than the markets. A Marist survey from October 8-11 had Talarico at 47% and Paxton at 45% among likely voters. That's well within the margin of error, so a market price near 70% reflects more than polling alone: traders are also weighing fundraising, early voting and the national mood.
Why the Texas race matters for the Senate
Republicans hold the Senate 53-47, and Democrats need a net gain of four seats to take control. A Talarico win would be one of those four, while a Paxton hold would make the Democratic path far harder. Kalshi lists Texas among the seven races most likely to decide the chamber. See the full picture in our US politics odds.
Texas Senate odds FAQs
Who is favored to win the Texas Senate race?
James Talarico (D), at about 73% on Kalshi and 76% on Polymarket as of November 2.
What are Ken Paxton's odds?
About 26-27%.
When is the Texas Senate election?
Tuesday, November 3, 2026. Early in-person voting runs from October 19 to 30.
Where can I bet on the Texas Senate race?
On Kalshi and Polymarket US. Sportsbooks can't take election bets.
Odds are from Kalshi and Polymarket on the dates shown and change constantly. Market prices are not predictions or endorsements. Kalshi and Polymarket US are CFTC-regulated exchanges. Age and state eligibility rules apply, and promo terms apply. The Polymarket offer is not available in Nevada. Trading event contracts carries a risk of loss. If you or someone you know has a gambling problem, call 1-800-GAMBLER.
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