Los Angeles Mayor Election Odds: Markets Back Karen Bass Over Nithya Raman While Polls Call It a Tie
What are the latest LA mayor odds? Who will win the Bass vs. Raman runoff? Follow our pre-poll closing guide for Kalshi and Polymarket, plus promo codes ODDSCHECKER and CHECK.
Oliver Leonard - November 3, 2026, 9:30 AM EST
3 Minute ReadLos Angeles Mayor Election Odds: Markets Back Karen Bass Over Nithya Raman While Polls Call It a Tie
Midterms Election Day is here in the nation’s second-largest city, and the runoff between incumbent Mayor Karen Bass and City Councilmember Nithya Raman has turned into one of the most volatile local markets on the board. The favorite on Kalshi flipped three times in ten days during late October. Bass now holds the edge heading into poll closing.
Traders on CFTC-regulated prediction exchanges like Kalshi and Polymarket US have moved serious money on this race, with Kalshi’s market alone topping $109 million in volume. Sign up through oddschecker today.
As of Tuesday afternoon, both platforms price Bass around 58¢ while Raman sits near 42¢. The last major public poll tells a different story, with the two candidates tied among likely voters. If you want a position before polls close at 8:00 PM Pacific, here is how both platforms price the race, how to claim up to $40 in welcome bonuses, and what to watch once the counting starts.
Choose Your Platform: Kalshi or Polymarket US Promo Steps
Both platforms operate legally under CFTC oversight for US traders, and new users can claim bonus funds on both exchanges ahead of poll closing.
How to Claim the Polymarket $25 Promo Code (CHECK)
Redeeming your welcome bonus on the official US platform takes just five simple steps:
- Step 1: CLICK HERE or download the official Polymarket U.S. app.
- Step 2: Tap "I have a referral code" and enter promo code CHECK.
- Step 3: Complete signup using your Apple or Google login.
- Step 4: Add a payment method and deposit at least $10.
- Step 5: Make your first qualifying trade - your $25 trading bonus is issued automatically. (Bonus funds are non-withdrawable, but profits from trades are yours to keep. Offer not available in Nevada).
How to Claim Your Kalshi $15 Promo Code (ODDSCHECKER)
Redeeming your welcome offer and unlocking your credit takes just six simple steps:
- Step 1: CLICK HERE or visit Kalshi, or download the app and start the sign-up process.
- Step 2: Provide your date of birth and enter the Kalshi promo code: ODDSCHECKER.
- Step 3: Enter a valid phone number and input the verification code sent to your phone.
- Step 4: Accept the Kalshi Terms & Conditions and confirm your personal information, including your Social Security Number (SSN), as required for CFTC-regulated exchanges.
- Step 5: Deposit funds using an approved payment method (ACH, debit card, USDC, or wire).
- Step 6: Complete $15 in total trades across any available markets (politics, sports, finance, or entertainment) to trigger your bonus. (Multiple smaller trades count toward the $15 total).
Kalshi vs. Polymarket US Odds Comparison
On both exchanges, each contract pays out exactly $1.00 if your candidate wins and $0.00 if they lose. Market prices represent the implied probability and change constantly in real time based on late-breaking turnout reports, volume shifts, and early county counting.
Los Angeles Mayor Odds (November 3, 2026)
Candidate | Party | Kalshi Price (Nov 3) | Kalshi Implied Payout (100 Contracts) | Polymarket Price (Nov 3) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
Karen Bass | Democrat | 58¢ (Yes) / 42¢ (No) | Pay $58 → Win $100 ($42 profit) | 58¢ (Yes) / 42¢ (No) |
Nithya Raman | Democrat | 42¢ (Yes) / 58¢ (No) | Pay $42 → Win $100 ($58 profit) | 42¢ (Yes) / 58¢ (No) |
Tips for Betting on the LA Mayor Race Before Polls Close
- Remember how the primary count played out: On primary night in June, the first results had Bass in first, Spencer Pratt in second, and Raman back in third. Raman climbed past Pratt as later ballots were counted over the following days. California counts mail ballots for days after Election Day, so the first batches tonight may not reflect where the race ends up.
- Trade the gap between the polls and the price: The final Berkeley IGS/Los Angeles Times poll, taken October 19-25, had Bass and Raman tied at 40% each. Nearly one in five likely voters was still undecided. Raman buyers see a coin-flip race priced like a lean Bass win, and Bass holders are betting the market caught something the poll missed.
- Use limit orders instead of market buys: Order books get thin and spreads widen right around poll closing. Placing a limit order slightly below the current ask (for example, a 55¢ bid on Bass rather than crossing a 58¢ ask) can get you filled during brief liquidity dips.
- Take advantage of pre-settlement exits: You do not have to hold until the result is certified to take profit. If you buy Raman at 42¢ and a favorable ballot drop pushes her to 55¢, you can sell immediately and lock in the gain.
Why the LA Mayor Race Matters Beyond City Hall
This runoff carries real history on both sides. Bass is the first incumbent Los Angeles mayor forced into a runoff since 2005, and no sitting mayor has been unseated since that same year. She is also the city’s first Black woman mayor, and a Raman win would make her the first South Asian woman to hold the job.
The matchup is also a generational test inside one party. Both candidates are Democrats and former allies, since Raman endorsed Bass before entering the race in February. Bass, 72, runs on experience and has called Raman unready. Raman, 44, has hammered Bass on housing costs, street repairs, and homelessness policy. Bass’s campaign has hit back on encampments and police staffing.
That split explains a lot of the market chaos. Raman led on Kalshi as recently as last month, and the Democratic Socialists of America nearly pulled its endorsement of her this week. Traders have been repricing with every headline, which is why this book has swung harder than most local races ever do.
LA Mayor Betting FAQs
When do polls close in Los Angeles?
Vote centers in Los Angeles close at 8:00 PM Pacific (11:00 PM Eastern) on Tuesday, November 3. Any voter in line by 8:00 PM can still cast a ballot. Mail ballots postmarked by Election Day and received within seven days also count, which is why the full count takes a while.
Can I legally bet on the Los Angeles Mayoral race?
Yes. You can trade contracts on the Kansas Senate contest on CFTC-regulated prediction markets such as Kalshi and Polymarket US. Traditional state-regulated sportsbooks (such as DraftKings or FanDuel) are prohibited from listing political event markets under U.S. gaming regulations.
How do Kalshi and Polymarket settle the LA Mayor market?
- Polymarket US: Contracts resolve based on results from the City of Los Angeles, which posts certified results once the county finishes its canvass.
- Kalshi: Contracts resolve based on results from the City of Los Angeles, which posts certified results once the county finishes its canvass. Prices on both platforms generally drift toward $0.99 once a winner becomes clear, well before certification.
Can I sell my shares on election night while votes are being counted?
Yes. Both platforms run continuous order books, so you can buy or sell positions as each ballot update comes in. That matters more than usual here, since California’s count can stretch for days.
Disclaimers: Odds and contract pricing are based on Kalshi and Polymarket US figures as of November 3, 2026, and fluctuate continuously. Market prices reflect collective participant probability estimates, not guaranteed outcomes or political endorsements. Kalshi and Polymarket US operate as CFTC-regulated exchanges. Age, jurisdiction, and eligibility rules apply. Polymarket US access remains unavailable in Nevada. Trading event contracts involves substantial risk of financial loss. If you or someone you know has a gambling problem, call 1-800-GAMBLER.
