Who Are the Betting Favorites for the 2026 Midterms?
Discover who the betting favorites are for the 2026 midterm elections. Explore live prediction market odds on Kalshi and Polymarket US for House and Senate control, analyze sweep probabilities across key battlegrounds, and unlock up to $50 in welcome bonuses with promo codes ODDSCHECKER and CHECK before the polls close.
Sam Eaton - November 3, 2026, 8:00 AM EST
3 Minute ReadWho Are the Betting Favorites for the 2026 Midterms?
Democrats are the betting favorites to win both the House and the Senate in the 2026 midterms. As of November 3, prediction markets give Democrats about a 94% chance of winning the House and about a 76% chance of winning the Senate. A Democratic sweep of both chambers is the single most likely outcome, priced at around 75%.
These odds come from Kalshi and Polymarket US, where traders put real money behind their views. They aren't polls or forecasts, and they move every day until the results are called. To trade them yourself, use Kalshi promo code ODDSCHECKER or Polymarket promo code CHECK when you sign up through oddschecker
House odds: who's favored to win the House?
Party | Kalshi | Polymarket |
|---|---|---|
Democrats | 94% | 95% |
Republicans | 6% | 6% |
All 435 seats are up for election and a party needs 218 for a majority. Democrats have been favored in this market since it opened, but their price has climbed: Kalshi's House market opened on May 27 with Democrats at 76%. It's now the most heavily traded midterm market on Kalshi, with about $157 million traded as of October 28.
Senate odds: who's favored to win the Senate?
Party | Kalshi | Polymarket |
|---|---|---|
Democrats | 76% | 77% |
Republicans | 24% | 24% |
The Senate is much tighter. Republicans go into Election Day holding a 53-47 majority, and with Vice President JD Vance breaking any 50-50 tie, Democrats need a net gain of four seats to take control. That's why the market gives Republicans roughly a one-in-three chance of keeping the chamber.
History matters here too. The president's party has lost House seats in all but a handful of midterms since World War II, which is part of why traders made Democrats House favorites from the day the market opened.
Balance of power: the most likely overall result
Outcome | Kalshi odds |
|---|---|
Democrats win both chambers | 75% |
Democratic House, Republican Senate | 20% |
Republicans win both chambers | 6% |
Republican House, Democratic Senate | 1% |
A split Congress, with Democrats taking the House and Republicans holding the Senate, is the clear second favorite at 20%.
Key Senate races and their favorites
Kalshi names Texas, Maine, Michigan, Ohio, Iowa, South Carolina and Kansas as the races most likely to decide the Senate. Here's where the markets stood in the biggest of them in late October:
Race | Matchup | Kalshi favorite |
|---|---|---|
Texas | James Talarico (D) vs Ken Paxton (R) | Talarico, 74% |
Michigan | Abdul El-Sayed (D) vs Mike Rogers (R) | El-Sayed, about 81% |
Ohio | Sherrod Brown (D) vs Jon Husted (R) | Brown, about 71% |
Maine | Troy Jackson (D) vs Susan Collins (R) | Jackson, about 73% |
Texas is the most traded competitive race on Kalshi. If Republicans hold the seats where they trail by a few points, the Senate math changes quickly, which is why these races can swing the overall Senate price on election night.
Polls are tighter than the prices in all four races. Marist had Talarico ahead 47-45 in mid-October, El-Sayed ahead 50-48 and Jackson ahead 49-47, so a 60-70% market price still leaves room for an upset. Our Maine Senate odds breakdown covers the Collins race in more detail.
How reliable are midterm betting odds?
A price is the market's best collective guess, not a certainty. A 9% outcome should still happen about one time in 11, and a 35% outcome about one time in three. Prices can also shift fast on late polling, turnout news or early returns.
That's what makes the markets worth watching. If you think the market has a race wrong, you can buy the side you believe is underpriced. And because both platforms let you sell before settlement, you can lock in gains as the odds move.
Back the favorites, or the long shots
Favorites cost more and pay less. A Democratic House contract at 94¢ returns $1, a 6¢ profit. A Republican House contract at 6¢ returns the same $1, but the market rates it a long shot. Every trade comes down to whether you think the price is right.
New users can start with a bonus on either platform:
- Kalshi: promo code ODDSCHECKER for a $25 bonus credit after your qualifying trades.
- Polymarket: promo code CHECK for a $25 trading bonus after your first deposit and trade (not available in Nevada).
Claim both offers at oddschecker
Midterm favorites FAQs
Who is favored to win the House in 2026?
Democrats, at about 94% on Kalshi and 95% on Polymarket as of November 3.
Who is favored to win the Senate in 2026?
Democrats, at about 76% on Kalshi and 77% on Polymarket. Republicans are priced at about 24%.
What are the odds Republicans keep the Senate?
Around 24-25% across Kalshi and Polymarket as of November 3.
Where can I bet on the midterm favorites?
On CFTC-regulated prediction markets such as Kalshi and Polymarket US. Sportsbooks can't offer election betting.
What are the odds Republicans keep the House?
About 6% on Kalshi and 6% on Polymarket as of November 3.
What are the odds the Senate flips in 2026?
Democrats need a net gain of four seats to flip the Senate, and markets put their chances at about 76%.
Where can I see live midterm odds?
Our US politics odds page tracks the latest political markets, and our 2026 midterms odds guide breaks down the House and Senate.
Odds are from Kalshi and Polymarket as of November 3, 2026, and change constantly. Market prices reflect traders' views and are not predictions or endorsements. Kalshi and Polymarket US are CFTC-regulated exchanges. Age and state eligibility rules apply, and promo terms apply. The Polymarket offer is not available in Nevada. Trading event contracts carries a risk of loss. If you or someone you know has a gambling problem, call 1-800-GAMBLER.
