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Australian Open Odds Day 14: Men’s Final Predictions, and Betting Picks

Rafael Nadal will face Daniil Medvedev in a highly anticipated Australian Open final. Nadal is gunning for a record 21st grand slam title, but oddsmakers are favoring Medvedev to win. Does the market have it right?
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Australian Open Odds Day 14: Men’s Final Predictions, and Betting Picks

Rafael Nadal and Daniil Medvedev are set to decide the first major final of the 2022 season. Nadal is seeking to become the winningest player by clinching a 21st grand slam title that would see him separate himself from Novak Djokovic and Rodger Federer (both also on 20 grand slam titles). Medvedev, in the meanwhile, is seeking to win his second major title and second straight after winning the 2021 US Open.

Bookmakers have taken a surprising stance with this final, installing the Russian as the favorite to win. Bet365 prices Medvedev at -200 and Nadal at +170. Will Medvedev come through as the favorite? Or, will Nadal defy the odds and win the Australian Open title.

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Rafael Nadal vs. Daniil Medvedev

  •  Date: Sunday, January 30, 2022
  •  Time: 3:30 a.m. ET
  •  Location: Rod Laver Arena in Melbourne, Australia
  •  TV: ESPN

Click here for Medvedev vs Nadal odds

Nadal defeats Berrettini in four sets

Rafael Nadal extended his record to 2-0 over Matteo Berrettini, overcoming the Italian in four sets in the semifinals. Nadal started brightly and easily won the first two sets before Berrettini launched a mini-rally to win the third. In the fourth set, the pair were neck-and-neck until the tail end of the set. Berrettini blinked. That was the opening the Spaniard needed, and he capitalized swiftly to clinch the fourth set and the match. 

Nadal came into the tournament with many fitness question marks, albeit he did win his Australian Open tune-up event – the ATP 250 in Melbourne. The difference between these two tournaments is the best-of-five scenario specific to grand slams. How Nadal would hold up in those kinds of grueling situations was uncertain, knowing he’d missed the second half of the 2021 season with a foot injury. 

Well, the Spaniard has answered quite emphatically. He survived a five-setter against Denis Shapovalov, and he edged Karen Khachanov and Matteo Berrettini in four sets. He’s certainly been tested. Nadal or win a major. 

Medvedev defeats Tsitsipas in four sets

Daniil Medvedev overcame Stefanos Tsitsipas in four sets to improve his record over the Greek to 7-2. It marked the second straight win for Medvedev over Tsitsipas in the Australian Open semis after he beat him in straight sets in 2021. 

Medvedev beat Tsitsipas 7-6 (5), 4-6, 6-4, 6-1. It was a highly competitive match, especially in the first set. Both players had to work hard to win games, and each had chances to take it, but Medvedev finally persevered in the tiebreaker. Winning the opening set was crucial for Medvedev as it gave him a mental advantage over Tsitsipas. Medvedev did drop the second set, but he quickly recovered and won the last two sets.

Medvedev comes into the final in good form and brimming with confidence. His toughest matchup to date was Felix Auger Aliassime in the quarterfinals. Medvedev was forced to come from behind in a five-set thriller. Uncharacteristically, Medvedev dropped the first two sets before he turned the tables on the Canadian and won in five sets. 

Nadal vs Medvedev Odds

-185Daniil Medvedev
+160Rafael Nadal

Click here for Medvedev vs Nadal odds

Medvedev is the higher-ranked player and the most recent grand slam champion, having won the 2021 US Open. That he pulled off the feat in a straight-set win over Novak Djokovic probably underscores his favorable odds to win the Australian Open final. That said, Nadal is a 20-time grand slam champion for a reason. It’s somewhat surprising to see the Spaniard tipped as the underdog here. 

Nadal vs Medvedev Betting Predictions and Picks

Medvedev’s bid to win a second major title is viewed favorably by the markets, but is he really the best bet? Nadal is chasing an incredible historical milestone that few would have predicted was even possible almost 20 years ago when Pete Sampras retired as the winningest grand slam champion with 14 titles. Three players have since smashed Sampras’ record to smithereens – the Big Three of the game, starting with Roger Federer, Rafael Nadal, and then Novak Djokovic. And now, Nadal is on the cusp of winning his 21st major title. It’s simply incredible stuff. 

What is even more incredible, though, is the fact that Nadal is priced as the underdog at +170. If that is not a value play, what is? Nadal came into the tournament at +1200 to win the Aussie Open title. He’s now just a +170 bet to do so. He’s clearly defied the odds along the way, and one more win will see him complete the task. 

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Nikki Adams is a freelance sports writer that’s honed in on the world of sports betting. She joined OddsChecker in 2021 after having covered a number of major American sports, including NFL and NCAAF, for several other publications in the industry. When she’s not looking for the best betting angles and writing engaging and insightful articles, she’s likely on a tennis court or binging on reality TV.


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