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US Open Odds: Can Favorite Matteo Berrettini Reach the US Open Semifinals After Round 1 Upsets?

The first round of the Men's US Open completely blew up the second quarter. With fourth seed Stefanos Tsitsipas and 10th seed Taylor Fritz eliminated, the draw is now wide open.
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US Open Odds: Can Favorite Matteo Berrettini Reach the US Open Semifinals After Round 1 Upsets?

The first round of the Men's US Open completely blew up the second quarter. With fourth seed Stefanos Tsitsipas and 10th seed Taylor Fritz eliminated, the draw is now wide open. Sportsbooks are backing Matteo Berrettini to return to the semi-finals for the first time since 2019.

Click Here for the Latest US Open Odds

US Open Semifinal Odds Breakdown

Berrettini is given +185 odds, or an implied 35.1% chance of reaching the US Open semi-finals. His biggest competition is expected to be Casper Rudd who’s given +400 odds, or an implied 20% chance. That said, the odds are a testament to how competitive this draw is now. Six players are given at least a 10% chance to win this quarter. Only three are given at least a 10% chance to win the first quarter.

Even without Fritz, sportsbooks aren’t ready to dismiss the possibility of an American winning this US Open quarter either. Sebastian Korda is given +900 odds, or an implied 10% chance. Tommy Paul is given +1000 odds, or an implied 9.1% chance. Sportsbooks are a little less optimistic about the two young Americans who pulled off upsets with Brandon Holt given +6500 odds and Emilio Nava given +15000 odds.

This quarter is truly wide open. So many young players now have a chance to make a breakthrough. Ruud has never made it past the third round at the US Open. Paul has never been passed the fourth round at any major. Same with Korda. Alejandro Davidovich Fokina has a shot to make his first semi-final. With such a wide-open draw, anything is possible.

US Open 2nd QUARTER WINNER

OddsPlayerImplied Odds
+185Matteo Berrettini35.1%
+400Casper Ruud20%
+550Andy Murray15.4%
+700Botic Van De Zandschulp12.5%
+800Alejandro Davidovich Fokina11.1%
+900Sebastian Korda10%
+1000Tommy Paul9.1%
+3500Marton Fucsovics2.8%
+4000Daniel Elahi Galan2.4%
+5000Jordan Thompson2%
+6500Tim Van Rijthoven1.5%
+6500Brandon Holt1.5%
+8000Pedro Cachin1.2%
+15000Emilio Nava0.7%

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A PR Associate at @OddsCheckerUS. Available for Podcasts, Radio, and TV. Quoted in Forbes, Chicago Tribune, Sports Illustrated, and more.

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