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Australian Open Semifinal Odds: Sebastian Korda Favored to Reach First Grand Slam Semifinal

An American hasn't reached the Australian Open Semifinals since 2009, will Sebastian Korda be the first to break that record? Kyle Newman breaks down the Australian Open Semifinal odds. Let's get into it.
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Australian Open Semifinal Odds: Sebastian Korda Favored to Reach First Grand Slam Semifinal

After his shock straight sets victory over Daniil Medvedev, Sebastian Korda is now expected to win the top quarter. It doesn’t matter to the books that two higher-rated seeds are still in the tournament, including Korda’s next opponent; they’re backing the American to take the next step.

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Korda is given +125 odds, or an implied 44.4% chance to reach the semifinal. His next opponent, world number nine Hubert Hurkacz, is given +333 odds or an implied 23.1% chance. Karen Khachanov, who just defeated fellow American Frances Tiafoe, is given +300 odds or an implied 25% chance to move on. The worst odds in the quarter by far are given to Yoshihito Nishioka at +700, or an implied 12.5% chance.

Korda is also given the fourth-best odds to win the tournament at +1000, or an implied 9.1% chance. The only players given better odds are Stefanos Tsitsipas and Holger Rune, both at +650, and Novak Djokovic, at +120.

It’s been a long time since an American has reached the semifinal at the Australian Open. Andy Roddick was the last to do it in 2009. The books are confident that the streak will be broken this year though. First, they thought Taylor Fritz would do it. Now they’re backing Korda. It won’t be a big surprise if the winner of Tommy Paul vs. Jenson Brooksby ends up the favorite to win their quarter as well. For now, though, Korda has established himself as the top remaining American. This is the third time that Korda has made a fourth-round appearance, is it time for him to break through?

Australian Open 1st Quarter Winner Odds

PlayerOddsImplied chance
Sebastian Korda+12544.4%
Karen Khachanov+30025%
Hubert Hurkacz+33323.1%
Yoshihito Nishioka+70012.5%

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