2025 US Open Odds: Carlos Alcaraz Slight Underdog to Jannik Sinner at Final Grand Slam
The 2025 US Open is set to get underway on Sunday in Queens, but who will be lifting the trophy in a few weeks? Peter Alexis breaks down this two-man race between Carlos Alcaraz and Jannik Sinner, with the top-ranked Italian getting a slight edge in the US Open outright winner odds.
Peter Alexis - August 19, 2025, 9:25 AM EDT
5 Minute Read2025 US Open Odds: Carlos Alcaraz Slight Underdog to Jannik Sinner at Final Grand Slam
Carlos Alcaraz may have lifted the Cincinnati Open title over Jannik Sinner on Monday evening, but he didn't have to complete the full job. Sinner retired late in the first set due to illness, and was already down 5-0. But all eyes move to the 2025 US Open, just days away from the official singles play.
The draw will bet set after a few more qualifying matches early this week, and the first round will get underway on Sunday, August 24th in Queens. The grand slam circuit has been dominated by Sinner and Alcaraz, with one or the other winning the last seven slams.
These two stars have already met a few times in 2025, with Alcaraz coming back in epic fashion to steal the French Open title, and Sinner got revenge a month later in the Wimbledon final. Of the four meetings this season, Alcaraz holds a 3-1 advantage, yet still finds himself as a slight underdog coming into the 2025 US Open.
Can anyone else compete with these two young superstars? After a few years of back and forth with Djokovic and others, they seem to be in a league of their own now, and are likely to dominate the Grand Slam titles for the next several seasons. Let's take a look at who has the advantage in the 2025 US Open winner odds.
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2025 Men's US Open Outright Winner Odds
2025 Men's US Open Outright Winner Odds
Jannik Sinner (+110) Click here to see which sportsbook has the best odds
Jannik Sinner has been the clear No. 1 in the ATP rankings all year, despite his notable struggles against Carlos Alcaraz. Although he retired in Cincinnati due to illness, he is expected to be 100% for this weekend's US Open first round, where he likely won't play until Monday or Tuesday.
He currently has a slight lead on the odds board over Alcaraz at +110, but it will depend on the draw and each player's path to the final. While these two will be separate, it's anyone's guess who could stand in their way until the bracket is released.
Carlos Alcaraz (+135) Click here to see which sportsbook has the best odds
Carlos Alcaraz is not the favorite here at the US Open despite his aforementioned Cincinnati title this week. If you include the Monday walkover, Alcaraz is now 6-1 against Sinner in the last seven meetings. He won five in a row over the Italian, with the streak finally snaped in July's Wimbledon Final.
The Spaniard's French Open Final comeback was one of the greatest rallies in the history of tennis at that stage, and it will be difficult to top that type of performance. But we can certainly expect these two juggernauts to meet again in this US Open Final, and the oddsmakers would seem to agree. There is no one within a mile of these two to win it all, but the odds may shift once the draw comes out.
Novak Djokovic (+1500) Click here to see which sportsbook has the best odds
Novak Djokovic will likely go down as the greatest tennis player of all time when he retires, but the youth movement has officially passed him by. He had been competing strongly with Alcaraz and Sinner in recent years, even stealing a few more Grand Slams in 2023. But in the last year and a half, the two youngsters have overtaken him, and he's been dismantled in several finals and semi's against the pair.
Sportsbooks are giving the legend a 6.3% chance to win his fifth US Open title, but it doesn't look likely at this point. He's 38 years old, and the injuries are starting to catch up to him. Alcaraz and Sinner are faster, lengthier, and almost impossible to beat right now. It is probably not worth taking a flier on Djokovic unless one of them loses early/gets injured.
Alexander Zverev (+2500) Click here to see which sportsbook has the best odds
Alexander Zverev stands on the outside looking in at these two young guns taking over. During the covid years, it became widely expected that he would rise to prominence alongside Medvedev and Tsitsipas. While third in the world is nothing to sneeze at, there is a clear and obvious talent gap between him and Sinner + Alcaraz. Their skills are more refined already, their motor is relentless, and he just doesn't seem to stack up against them.
Alcaraz beat Zverev just this past week in Cincinnati, he beat him in the French Open Final in 2024, and he took him down in the US Open quarterfinals in 2023. When the lights are the brightest, Zverev seems to struggle to get over the hump, while Alcaraz shines at his peak. It will be tough for Zverev or any of these other contenders to outdo them.
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