Houston Astros vs. Minnesota Twins Betting Pick: Can Joey Ryan, Jose Urquidy Shine in Game 4?

Houston Astros vs. Minnesota Twins Betting Pick: Can Joey Ryan, Jose Urquidy Shine in Game 4?

The Twins have their backs against the wall. They are one loss away from elimination. Luckily for Minnesota, there is new hope. Byron Buxton was added to the active roster only hours before the first pitch. Will Buxton’s return bring new energy back into the Twins’ dugout?

Astros vs. Twins Date, Time and Where to Watch

• Date: October 11, 2023
• Time: 7:07 pm ET
• Where to Watch: FS1

Houston Astros vs. Minnesota Twins Prediction

I’m avoiding a side in this contest with a ten-foot pole. I feel like Houston is the “square” side, but with Buxton’s return, I’m not looking to buy good news at (-120). I’ll be targeting the total instead.

The over has smacked in every game this series. It shocked me to see the opening total for game four only at 8.5 in the worst starting-pitching matchup of the series. Wouldn’t you assume that after the over cashed in the first three games, a matchup between Joe Ryan’s career 8.36 ERA against Houston and Jose Urquidy’s 5.29 season ERA would have a higher total? I certainly did…

Joe Ryan hasn’t pitched well against the Astros or in his recent starts, but I’ve got an angle as to why he’s going to improve in his fourth start against Houston tonight. The reason Ryan has struggled of late is because he’s filling the zone too much. Similar to what we saw out of Spencer Strider earlier this year, the young arm is trying to cut down his walk rate, and it’s costing him immensely. Ryan has walked fewer guys over the past month or so, but he’s also allowed a lot more hits and home runs.

There’s no way that Joe Ryan is as accurate tonight as he’s been over the past few weeks. This will be his postseason debut, and with Minnesota on the brink of elimination, there are going to be nerves. Ryan has struggled with control at times this season, but I think that will benefit him tonight. I’m willing to bet the 27-year-old throws fewer meatballs tonight because he’s trying to cut his walks down because of some postseason debut nerves, even if he’s trying to cut down his walks. Sure he might walk a batter or two, but maybe he’ll look more like Joe Ryan from the first half of the season who dealt nearly start.

Jose Urquidy might not have great stats this season, but this guy has a ton of postseason experience. He’s also coming off two scoreless outings. I’m willing to bet we get a better start out of Urquidy than the public expects…

With Minnesota’s back against the wall, we can only expect their “A” arms out of the bullpen tonight. The same could be said for Houston, who will be looking to keep this game close for a potential late-inning comeback so they can try to avoid a game five. Fade the public tonight, and bet the under. You never want to be buying good news when sports betting, and I’m honestly looking forward to fading the “Buxton is back” narrative.

Houston Astros vs. Minnesota Twins Pick

• PICK: HOU/MIN u8 (+100) Click here to see which sportsbook has the best odds for this pick