Cincinnati Reds vs. Washington Nationals Prediction: Can the Reds Heat Up Against Patrick Corbin, Nationals?
The Cincinnati Reds host the Washington Nationals for a three-game series. Can the Reds heat up against Patrick Corbin and the Nationals tonight? Ben Rajavuori answers.
Ben Rajavuori - August 4, 2023, 4:09 PM EDT
5 minCincinnati Reds vs. Washington Nationals Prediction: Can the Reds Heat Up Against Patrick Corbin, Nationals?
The Cincinnati Reds are coming off a tough series on the road against the Chicago Cubs in which they got swept at the hands of the Cubs as their starting pitching problem was an issue that was glaring, as it has been all season. Tonight, they are back at home against the Washington Nationals to try and get back on track and try to retake first place in the NL Central. Can they do it behind Graham Ashcraft?
Reds vs. Washington Date, Time, Where to Watch
- Date: August 4, 2023
- Time: 6:40 pm ET
- Where to Watch: MLB.TV
Cincinnati Reds vs. Washington Nationals Prediction
Pitching will be essential tonight because it's a warm night in Great American Ballpark, and an already hitter-friendly ballpark will be even more hitter-friendly tonight with Patrick Corbin on the mound, which could spell bad news for the Nationals.
Patrick Corbin has been having a tough time since 2021, holding a 5.82 ERA in 2021 and a 6.31 ERA in 2022. In 2023, his ERA has come back down to 5.07, so he is improving, but he still is susceptible to the long ball. He has given up 21 home runs in 126 innings this season, averaging a home run allowed every six innings. Most of those have come on the road as well, as he has given up 14 home runs in 56 innings pitched for a home run every four innings.
On top of that, this Reds' lineup has had success against Corbin. Corbin had an outing against the Reds at home back on July 4th, and the Reds tore him apart for six runs in five innings while tacking on two home runs. Leadoff hitter Elly De La Cruz is 3-3 off Corbin, and six of the Reds' nine batters in tonight's lineup are hitting over .300 against Corbin.
On the other side, Graham Ashcraft does have an inflated 5.31 ERA, but he has been much better as of late. Ashcraft had a 1.84 over five starts in July, and he only gave up two home runs all month in 29 innings pitched, which will be pivotal tonight. Ashcraft actually had a start against the Nationals back on July 5th, and he went six innings and only gave up one earned run. The Reds won that game 9-2 on the road. With how well Ashcraft has been after a rocky start to the season, I like him to show out against the Nationals again tonight.
The Nationals have a bit of a watered-down lineup, with Blake Rutherford and Jake Alu in at the bottom of the lineup. The top of the lineup has not had much success against Ashcraft, but the Red's lineup has had success off Corbin up and down the order. The weather will favor the team with more power hitting, and that is the Reds. The Nationals have hit the second-fewest home runs in the league, and the Reds have the ninth-highest OPS. This is a game the Reds lead after five innings.
Cincinnati Reds vs. Washington Nationals Pick
2 Unit Pick: Reds First Five Innings -.5 -120 is currently the best odds. Click here to see which sportsbook has the best odds for this pick
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