Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Atlanta Braves Player Prop Picks: Can Lance Lynn Silence the Braves' Bats Tonight?

Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Atlanta Braves Player Prop Picks: Can Lance Lynn Silence the Braves' Bats Tonight?

The Dodgers host the Braves for a series between two of the top teams in the MLB. Recently acquired Lance Lynn takes the mound for the Dodgers, and for the first time in over three years, the Dodgers are underdogs at home. It's not even like +105 or +110, they are +125. A large factor of this is the pitching matchup, as Cy Young-hopeful Spence Strider takes the mound for the Braves with a 3.46 ERA versus Lynn's 5.56 ERA. However, there is good value on Lynn tonight.

Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Atlanta Braves Date, Time and Where to Watch

• Date: August 31, 2023
• Time: 10:10 pm ET
• Where to Watch: MLB.TV

Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Atlanta Braves Player Props

Sure, Lance Lynn has a 5.56 ERA on the season, but he has looked rejuvenated since joining the Dodgers. Maybe it's the mindset of being on a World Series-caliber team or showing off for his new team, or both, but Lynn has performed much better over his five starts with the Dodgers than he had all season with the White Sox. After having a 6.47 ERA over the course of the season with the White Sox, Lynn had a 6.47 ERA. Over his first five starts with the Dodgers, he has a 2.03 ERA, four quality starts, and the Dodgers have won ALL FIVE games.

Lance Lynn has always been a strikeout guy, and even with his highly-inflated ERA this season, that has remained. He has 1.21 strikeouts per inning this season, which ranks in the 81st percentile among starters. He also has a 13.9% swinging strike rate, which is in the 84th percentile. He gets a lot of swings and misses, and he will need them tonight against the most potent offense in the league.

The Braves have been crushing the ball all season and are the best offense in the MLB, so I can see why backing Lynn to get strikeouts may be scary, but hang with me. Lance Lynn traveled to Atlanta back in July with the White Sox and gave up four runs in 5.1 innings, which isn't good, but he also struck out six batters. His line tonight is at 5.5 on FanDuel. Now that he is pitching with more confidence and pitching the best he has all season, there is no reason to believe he cannot do it again.

Lynn has excellent numbers against the Braves roster. In 95 at-bats against the current Braves roster, they have a .189 average off Lynn and 32 strikeouts, good for a 33.6% strikeout rate. Matt Olson has 11 strikeouts in 19 at-bats off Lynn. Sean Murphy has 8 strikeouts in 11 at-bats off him. Marcell Ozuna has 6 strikeouts in 19 at-bats off him. You see where I'm going with this.

It's easy to look at Lynn's 5.5 ERA and raise an eyebrow against the best lineup in the league. However, given Lynn's success strikeout-wise against this team, and his rejuvenated season with the Dodgers, he is a great bet to go over 5.5 tonight. He already did it on the road once this season with his old team when he was sucking. Now, he faces them in Dodger Stadium with the Braves coming off a road series up in altitude in Coors Field without a day of rest in between. I love Lynn to attack this order and get at least 6 K's tonight.

Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Atlanta Braves Player Prop Picks

• Pick: Lance Lynn Over 5.5 Strikeouts @ -122 (Click here to see which sportsbook has the best odds)