Miami Marlins vs. Los Angeles Dodgers Prediction, Pick: Can the Dodgers Get to Jesus Luzardo?
Ben Rajavuori is here to explain why he thinks the Dodgers will get to Jesus Luzardo tonight. Read on to see his Miami Marlins vs. Los Angeles Dodgers prediction and pick. You don't want to miss out on this MLB pick for today.
Ben Rajavuori - September 5, 2023, 5:04 PM EDT
5 minMiami Marlins vs. Los Angeles Dodgers Prediction, Pick: Can the Dodgers Get to Jesus Luzardo?
The Miami Marlins host the Los Angeles Dodgers for a three-game series tonight from LoanDepot Park, fresh off a sweep against the Washington Nationals. The four-game sweep puts the Marlins .5 games out of the last wild card spot in the National League. Meanwhile, the Dodgers narrowly avoided getting swept themselves, as they beat the Braves on Sunday to lose the series 1-3. The Dodgers have really pulled ahead in the NL West and are not too far from clinching the division.
Marlins vs. Dodgers Date, Time, and Where to Watch
- Date: September 5, 2023
- Game Time: 6:40 pm ET
- Where to Watch: MLB.TV
Miami Marlins vs. Los Angeles Dodgers Prediction
One notable thing about this Marlins team in 2023 has been their inconsistency against good teams. The Marlins have beat up on bad teams all season, posting a 40-25 record against teams below .500, but they are just 30-42 against teams above .500. The Dodgers have played well against both good and bad teams, posting a 42-33 record against above .500 teams, which is third in the MLB, just like their record. That may prove to be the difference tonight, as the Marlins have struggled against playoff-caliber teams all season.
Each team is starting their respective ace tonight, with the Dodgers starting Clayton Kershaw and the Marlins starting Jesus Luzardo. Kershaw is 12-4 on the season with a 2.48 ERA, while Luzardo is 9-8 on the season with a 3.62 ERA. Just like the team's win percentage against good and bad teams we just covered, the pitchers have a similar situation going on. Kershaw has been dominant against good and bad teams all year, posting a 2.28 ERA in 10 starts against teams below .500 and a 2.68 ERA against teams above .500. However, Luzardo's numbers are a bit different. Luzardo has a 2.91 ERA in 14 starts against teams below .500 and a 4.38 ERA in 13 starts against teams above .500. With both being southpaws, that also presents a new challenge for the Marlins in this game.
The Marlins have really been struggling against left-handed pitchers. Over the last 30 days, the Marlins have posted an MLB-low .570 OPS against lefty pitchers. They are also hitting just .205 off southpaws in that time frame, which is 29th. The Dodgers, on the other hand, have hit .280 off lefties in the last 30 days, which is 8th in the MLB. The Dodgers also have much better head-to-head numbers off Luzardo than the Marlins do off Kershaw.
All the stats point to the Dodgers here, and we are being given a gift that they are only -140. I think this is due to the fact that Luzardo has great numbers, and the Dodgers are on the road with Kershaw, who has pitched worse on the road, but all the underlying numbers still favor the Dodgers heavily. The Dodgers are probably going to come out angry after that series against the Braves, and they will take it out on the Marlins. This line should be over -150.
Miami Marlins vs. Los Angeles Dodgers Pick
Pick: Dodgers ML -140 is currently the best odds. Click here to see which sportsbook has the best odds
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