Seattle Mariners vs. Milwaukee Brewers Prediction: Can Freddy Peralta, Brewers Shut Down the Mariners?
This should be a very interesting pitching matchup tonight between two all star caliber pitchers in Logan Gilbert and Freddy Peralta. Who has the edge in this pitching duel in the Brewers vs. Mariners game? Let's break it down.
Joey Ruiz - April 5, 2024, 2:09 PM EDT
5 minSeattle Mariners vs. Milwaukee Brewers Prediction: Can Freddy Peralta, Brewers Shut Down the Mariners?
Freddy Peralta got off to a fantastic start this season against the Mets as he only gave up one earned run on a single hit against the Mets, which came in the form of a Starling Marte solo shot. Other than that, he was nearly perfect against the Mets as he tossed six innings of one hit ball while striking out eight and only allowing one free pass.
Mariners vs. Brewers DATE, TIME, AND WHERE TO WATCH
- Date: April 5, 2024
- Start Time: 8:10 p.m. ET
- Where to Watch: MLB Extra Innings
Seattle Mariners vs. Milwaukee Brewers Prediction
Peralta gets another favorable matchup against a very anemic Mariners offense that has been struggling mightily to start this 2024 campaign. Over the Mariners last two games, they got shutout by the Guardians 8-0 and also lost 5-2 so they have only managed a lowly total of two runs over their last 18 innings of at bats.
On the season to this point, the Mariners are ranked 27th in batting average, 29th in on base percentage, 27th in runs scored, 26th in home runs, and 29th in slugging percentage... not very good. It's also not like they have faced a murderer's row of arms either as they have faced the Red Sox and the Guardians who have middle of the pack arms.
On Wednesday, the Mariners were completely shutdown by Logan Allen of the Guardians as he rendered the Mariners offense completely inept as he tossed six and two-thirds innings of scoreless ball while striking out six and only allowed a total of four hits. Julio Rodriguez is the straw that stirs the drink for this Mariners offense and he has gotten off to a slow start as he is only hitting .185 with one extra base hit and a 33% strikeout rate to this point through the first seven games.
Other than Rodriguez, this Seattle lineup is filled with MLB journeyman and replacement level offensive players who are also off to slow starts. This is not a great recipe for success against a pitcher like Freddy Peralta who has electric stuff while also being better at home so far in his first few years with the Brew Crew. The Brewers lineup will also have a tough task ahead of them as they have to face Logan Gilbert who is a star in the making.
Gilbert also got off to a great start this season as he only allowed one run across seven innings against Boston while striking out eigth and not allowing a single free pass. Gilbert also has electric stuff but I believe he is an excellent regression candidate tonight in this road start. Last season for Seattle, Gilbert had four home starts where he pitched at least six innings allowing two earned runs or less that were immediately followed by a road start in his next appearance. In those four road starts, he threw a total of 20 and two-thirds innings while allowing 11 earned runs in games against the Guardians, Tigers, Royals, and Mets. All below average offensive teams and Gilbert still only totalled ERA of 4.78.
This is a small sample size but it does show that Gilbert has had a small track record of struggling in road starts immediately following up a solid start at home. I think gilbert gives up at least 2-3 earned runs while Freddy Peralta turns in an excellent performance against this anemic Mariners offense which should be enough to uplift the Brewers to a victory. With that being said, I am rolling with Brewers F5 ML at -117 and Brewers Full Game ML at -119 for 1U each as my most confident MLB plays of the day for tonight's action.
Seattle Mariners vs. Milwaukee Brewers Pick
Brewers F5 ML -117 Click here to see which sportsbook has the best odds
Brewers Full Game ML -119 Click here to see which sportsbook has the best odds
MLB ODDS
