St. Louis Cardinals vs. Philadelphia Phillies Prop Pick: Can Lance Lynn Fan Phillies Batters on Sunday Night?
The Philadelphia Phillies will host the St. Louis Cardinals on Sunday night baseball as they look for a sweep. Can Lance Lynn shut down the Phillies' lineup early and avoid another loss? Ben Rajavuori provides his best prop pick for Cardinals vs. Phillies.
Ben Rajavuori - June 2, 2024, 1:03 PM EDT
5 minSt. Louis Cardinals vs. Philadelphia Phillies Prop Pick: Can Lance Lynn Fan Phillies Batters on Sunday Night?
The Phillies and Cardinals will close out a three-game series tonight from Citizens Bank Park in Philadelphia on Sunday night baseball. The Phillies have been red hot and lead all of baseball with a 41–18 record. They are 24–8 at home and have won three games in a row. They will be looking to sweep the Cardinals tonight and remain baseball‘s top team with a win on Sunday night baseball.
The Cardinals have been struggling a bit this season but have crawled back to just under .500. While they are in a position to be swept by the Phillies tonight, they were 7-1 over their last eight games coming into the series. They now sit at 27–29 and are in third place in the NL Central. What should we expect in tonight’s game?
CARDINALS VS. PHILLIES DATE, TIME, AND WHERE TO WATCH
- Date: June 2, 2024
- Start Time: 7:10 p.m. ET
- Where to Watch: ESPN
CARDINALS VS. PHILLIES ODDS
- Spread: Cardinals +1 (-134), Phillies -1 (+110)
- Total: O 9 (-105), U 9 (-105)
- Moneyline Odds: Cardinals (+125), Phillies (-135)
St. Louis Cardinals vs. Philadelphia Phillies
The player I am looking at in this game is Cardinals pitcher Lance Lynn. Lance Lynn came back home to St. Louis this off-season, the team with which he spent his first six seasons in the MLB. Lynn has always been regarded as a strikeout pitcher who can use his swing-and-miss stuff to get out of jams. However, so far this season and in the latter half of last season, his strikeout stuff has not been as sharp as earlier in his career. however, I expect him to get back on the strikeout horse tonight and get at least six in Philly.
Lance Lynn's strikeout prop is only set at 5.5 tonight with plus money on the over. This is a very low line for a guy like Lynn who can easily sit down six in any start. However, the reason the line is this low is because Lynn has failed to do that over his last six outings. He has hit five strikeouts in four straight outings and has only gone over 5.5 in three of his 11 total appearances this year. With his strikeout prop dropping because of his lack of strikeout power this season, I love him at plus money to go over 5.5 tonight.
I previously mentioned that Lynn had hit this line in three of his 11 appearances this season, and one of those happened to be against the Phillies. On April 10, Lynn went five innings without allowing an earned run and struck out six against the Phillies in St. Louis.
Lance Lynn has five outings against the Phillies in his career. Because the first three were in the year 2013 and before, you can’t really put any weight into those coming into this matchup. However, Lance Lynn faced the Phillies last year and had seven strikeouts in 5.1 innings, which he followed up this season by already striking out six in five innings in their first meeting. Lynn has very good numbers against the Phillies and has struck out some of their best hitters at a high rate. Kyle Schwarber, the lead hitter, has struck out seven times in 18 at-bats against Lance Lynn. JT Realmuto, who hits second, has struck out four times in 12 at-bats against Lynn. With those two guys leading off and getting the maximum amount of appearances, Lynn could get two strikeouts from each guy alone to get to four here without any problem. However, Lynn has also struck out hitters like Whit Merrifield, Brandon Marsh, and Nick Castellanos, all at above a 30% strikeout rate. These are all the good bats for the Phillies, and other guys near the bottom of the order should add a few strikeouts as well (Like Edmundo Sosa, who has a 28% strikeout rate this year). Getting a line as low as 5.5 at plus money on Lynn's strikeouts is too good for me to pass up. Lynn has dominated this Phillies lineup and has struck out some of their best hitters above a 30% strikeout rate. While the Phillies have not been much of a strikeout team against right-handed pitching in 2024, the numbers don’t lie against Lance Lynn. Back Lynn to get six strikeouts against the Phillies lineup again and hit six strikeouts for the first time since April 22.
ST. LOUIS CARDINALS VS. PHILADELPHIA PHILLIES Prop PICK
Pick: Lance Lynn Over 5.5 Strikeouts (+115) Click here to see which sportsbook has the best odds
MLB ODDS
