Kansas City Royals vs. Cleveland Guardians Betting Pick: Can Triston McKenzie, Guardians Dominate at Home?
The Kansas City Royals and Cleveland Guardians start a three game series tonight to kick off Tuesday's MLB slate. Can Triston McKenzie and Guardians dominate at home? Ben Rajavuori shares his best betting pick for the game.
Ben Rajavuori - June 4, 2024, 4:44 PM EDT
5 minKansas City Royals vs. Cleveland Guardians Betting Pick: Can Triston McKenzie, Guardians Dominate at Home?
The Cleveland Guardians and Kansas City Royals will meet for their first game of the season from Progressive Field tonight. This three-game series will be the first of many between these divisional foes. These two could easily be making up the top two spots in the AL Central at the end of the season, as the Guardians are in first place with a 39–20 record and the Royals are not far behind with a 36–25 record.
ROYALS VS. GUARDIANS DATE, TIME, AND WHERE TO WATCH
- Date: June 4, 2024
- Start Time: 6:40 p.m. ET
- Where to Watch: MLB Extra Innings
KANSAS CITY ROYALS VS CLEVELAND GUARDIANS PREDICTION
The Royals will start this series by sending out pitcher Seth Lugo. Seth Lugo has been one of the best pitchers in baseball this season, sporting a 1.72 ERA and a 9–1 record. He has only allowed more than two runs in one start this season, which was his only loss against the Orioles. He has pitched a quality start in ten of his 12 total appearances this season. While Lugo has put up awe-inspiring numbers, I do believe he is a bit of a regression candidate.
Seth Lugo has a ridiculous 0.86 ERA on the road in six starts this season. He’s only allowing a .163 opponent batting average on the road this season. Those numbers are more than Cy Young-worthy, and while Seth Lugo has been a very decent pitcher during his career, those numbers are simply too perfect to keep up.
He has a .241 expected batting average and is giving up a 38% hard-hit rate, both of which are still slightly above average, but are not excellent. His underlying metrics support he is in for quite some regression, and the Guardians are a lineup that could make him see it.
On the other side will be Triston McKenzie on the mound. McKenzie is pitching with a 3.77 ERA and 1.38 WHIP coming into tonight. McKenzie has been pitching much better at home this season, where he has a 3.31 ERA across seven starts at Progressive Field. While Lugo could be a regression candidate, Mckenzie is a progression candidate.
McKenzie and Lugo actually have pretty similar numbers, as McKenzie also has a 38% hard-hit rate but has a lower expected batting average allowed of .234. He has had an issue with walks this season, but the Royals are 24th in walk rate against right-handed pitching this season, so he should be able to stay away from that trouble tonight against them.
McKenzie has also pitched well against this Royals team, as he has a .128 batting average in 50 plate appearances against the Royals hitters. He has kept some of the best bats in the lineup quiet, like Bobby Witt Jr., who is just 2–9 off McKenzie. Also, Salvador Perez, who is 3–18 against McKenzie.
This pitching matchup looks more skewed on paper than it really is. I believe McKenzie will have a great outing tonight against the Royals and that Lugo could be in for a bit of regression. Also, once the starters are out of the way, the Guardians have a big edge in the bullpen. The Guardians have the lowest ERA of any bullpen in the MLB at 2.42, while the Royals have one of the worst bullpens in the MLB with a combined ERA of 4.44, which is sixth worst in the MLB. I love the Guardians to take this home opener tonight.
KANSAS CITY ROYALS VS CLEVELAND GUARDIANS Betting Pick
Pick: Guardians ML -120 Click here to see which sportsbook has the best odds
MLB ODDS
