Cleveland Guardians vs. Miami Marlins Prop Pick: Will Logan Allen Struggle Against the Marlins?
Cleveland Guardians vs. Miami Marlins Prop Pick: Will Logan Allen Struggle Against the Marlins?
We have a beautiful 14-game Friday MLB slate on tap tonight and I have a plus money player prop for the Cleveland Guardians vs. Miami Marlins game. Miami will host the Guardians tonight for the first matchup of a three-game weekend series.
Guardians vs. Marlins DATE, TIME, AND WHERE TO WATCH
- Date: June 7, 2024
- Start Time: 7:10 p.m. ET
- Where to Watch: MLB Extra Innings
Cleveland Guardians vs. Miami Marlins Prediction
In game 1, Logan Allen will get the nod for Cleveland who has been put through the wringer a couple times over the last month. Allen comes into this game sporting a 5.83 ERA and has allowed three or more earned runs in eight of his twelve starts this season. He has also allowed 6+ hits in eight of his twelve starts as well.
When you take a deeper look into his advanced metrics they are pretty ugly. He ranks in the bottom 16th percentile in expected ERA (4.96), bottom 17th percentile in xBA (.273), bottom 20th percentile in barrel percentage, and bottom eighth percentile in hard hit percentage. Allen's struggles are primarily caused by right-handed hitters, he has a 1.66 WHIP, .317 batting average allowed, and .571 SLG when facing off against right-handed batters.
The Marlins are going to stack right-handed bats against him and eight right-handed hitters are currently projected for their starting lineup tonight. The Marlins have one of the worst offenses in baseball but looking over Allen's numbers you can see he is very hittable.
The books opened his pitching outs line at 15.5 against a bottom tier offensive team and that line is still widely available which tells me they are comfortable with the money coming in on his over. The main reason for this as I've mentioned is simply because Allen hasn't been very good this season. The second reason is that the Guardians have one of the best bullpens in all of baseball as they come into this game with a 2.38 ERA which is the lowest mark in the league.
Before giving up one run in yesterday's loss, Cleveland relievers were on a streak of 24 scoreless innings. The Guardians got an extra day off on Wednesday after their game was postponed which means their bullpen is in good shape heading into this series. Considering Allen's struggles on the year, I wouldn't at all be surprised if those struggles continued tonight even against a very mediocre Miami Marlins offense.
If that is the case, Stephen Vogt shouldn't be hesitate to turn to his bullpen early. At plus odds, I'm willing to fade Logan Allen pitching deep into this game which is why I'm taking the under on his 15.5 pitching outs prop pick.
Cleveland Guardians vs. Miami Marlins Prop Pick
Logan Allen Under 15.5 Outs (+106) Click here to see which sportsbook has the best odds
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