Sports Betting Picks Today: Tuesday's Best +EV Betting Picks
Sports Betting Picks Today: Tuesday’s Best +EV Betting Picks
Welcome back to the best positive EV picks for Tuesday, June 18th. Each day, we will be providing the best value bets from our AI powered model to determine where the most profit lies on player props from NBA, NHL, MLB, WNBA, and others.
The Expected Value shows what our predictive tech assumes the odds should be versus what the bookies are offering, highlighting the best available selections. +EV means profit, -EV means loss over time. Higher EV = better bet value.
Tuesday's Best +EV Betting Picks and Predictions
1. Aaron Nola Over 4.5 Strikeouts (-132) Click here to see which Sportsbook has the best odds
- AI Projection: 5.8
- Cover: 73%
- Hit Rate: 9/15
- +EV: 36%
The Philadelphia Phillies will take on the San Diego Padres on Tuesday night in the second game of their NL series. We're going to target one of the top pitchers in this loaded Phillies' rotation with Aaron Nola on the bump tonight.
Sure, you never want to go against the second-lowest strikeout team in the Padres for one of these props, but there is a strong enough backing here. For one, the Padres are ice cold. They just got swept by the Mets this weekend, and rolled into Philadelphia last night to suffer another 9-2 blowout. They are now on a four-game losing streak where they scored two runs or less in three of those losses.
Every starting pitcher in those four games also went for 5+ strikeouts against the struggling Padres' bats. Many of whom are much less talented and accomplished than Aaron Nola. With several San Diego stars in a slump, we simply have to capitalize on this low 4.5 line. Nola also tore through this Padres lineup in his fifth start of the year, racking up a season-high 10 strikeouts on April 26th.
There is nothing to suggest today will be any different for Nola, who has 23 career strikeouts against this lineup and a .252 allowed batting average. He's gone over his low 4.5 K line in 9 of his last 15 starts, and our metrics project him at 5.8 tonight, well over his listed total. This leads to an incredibly strong +36% positive EV that we have to pounce on.
2. Stuart Skinner Under 26.5 Saves (-125) Click here to see which Sportsbook has the best odds
- AI Projection: 24.2
- Cover: 66%
- Hit Rate: 12/15
- +EV: 18%
The Edmonton Oilers will head back to South Florida to try and stay alive against the Panthers on Tuesday night. The odds are not in their favor as they attempt to avoid a gentleman's sweep in Game 5. Since 2005, underdogs that won their previous Stanley Cup Finals game by five or more goals went 1-5 straight up in their next game, according to Bet Labs. The Oilers just won 8-1 in a Game 4 where the Panthers basically conserved their energy for the final matchup at home.
Why does this matter for a prop bet? Because the Panthers have entirely dominated this series in the other three games, and have gotten up early in all of those matchups. If they go up early on the scoreboard again tonight, they will be able to sit back and focus on their defensive efforts against a vaulted Oilers attack. Sergei Bobrovsky has played out of his mind for the vast majority of the Stanley Cup Playoffs, and there's a good chance he will be facing an onslaught of shots when the Oilers are down late in this game. The Panthers will need slim to no shots on net late in the game, so Skinner won't be racking up saves in the second part of this matchup.
Stuart Skinner has gone under this number in 12 of his 15 games throughout these Stanley Cup Playoffs, and while the Panthers will get after him early, the numbers will drop off towards the third period per the expected game script. With an AI projection of 24.2 saves, there is a solid gap between this offered 26.5 line, leading to an 18% positive EV spot. Let's focus on the Panthers to get up early and taper off the shots in the late game as they focus on protecting their lead and bringing home the Stanley Cup.
3. Dearica Hamby Under 10.5 Rebounds (-145) Click here to see which Sportsbook has the best odds
- AI Projection: 8.7
- Cover: 67%
- Sun Allow Least Rebounds in WNBA
- +EV: 13%
The final play to target tonight comes in the Los Angeles Sparks vs. Connecticut Sun game. Dearica Hamby is the centerpiece of the Sparks offense, which has been in some close games as of late. She has flown over double digit boards on many occasions, but won't see the same ease tonight against the Sun.
Connecticut allows the lowest boards per game in the WNBA at just 30.8 RPG, and will make life tough on Hamby. DeWanna Bonner and Alyssa Thomas will be grubbing on the glass, with Hamby and Cameron Brink picking up scraps. We aren't worried about past results in this one, because the Sparks haven't faced a beast like the Sun all year, and will have a hard time keeping up with their defense.
Our AI projections have Hamby down at 8.7 rebounds in this contest, an extremely telling mark given she's only been in the single digits three times this year. She also got stuck on eight last game, and will continue to struggle tonight while also potentially landing in foul trouble against the Connecticut bigs. With a 67% hit projection, this play is 13% positive EV, and a strong narrative play tonight.
— Tuesday, June 18th Los Angeles Sparks @ Connecticut Sun
MLB ODDS
Article Author
Peter is a sports writer focused on coverage and analysis of college football and basketball, as well as the NFL and other major sports. A graduate of the University of Missouri School of Journalism, he has been writing sports articles for over 8 years.
After working for ClutchPoints, Peter joined OddsChecker in 2023. He is a New York sports superfan and is fluent in the sports betting industry.