Seattle Mariners vs. Boston Red Sox Player Prop Pick: Our Favorite oddschecker+ Positive EV Prop Pick
The Boston Red Sox will take on the Seattle Mariners again after a scoring frenzy last night. Can Rafael Devers keep the momentum rolling for the Sox offense tonight? Ben Rajavuori is back with his top prop pick from the oddschecker+ Positive EV tool.
Ben Rajavuori - July 30, 2024, 4:54 PM EDT
5 minSeattle Mariners vs. Boston Red Sox Player Prop Pick: Our Favorite oddschecker+ Positive EV Prop Pick
The Red Sox host the Mariners for game two of their series after an electric game one yesterday that ended with 21 runs total. While this game will probably not see 21 runs as well, there’s a certain player I like who should add at least one to the board on a ball out of the park.
Mariners vs. Red Sox DATE, TIME, AND WHERE TO WATCH
- Date: July 29, 2024
- Start Time: 7:10 p.m. ET
- Where to Watch: MLB Extra Innings, NESN
Click here for the latest Mariners vs. Red Sox odds
Oddschecker+ Positive EV Tool
The player I like to go yard tonight in this game is Rafael Devers. This play is pulled straight from the oddschecker+ Positive EV tool that you can find in the top tab on the Oddschecker homepage. Oddschecker+ has Devers at a 36.2% probability to hit a homer tonight, while the implied odds are at 23.8%, giving us 52% EV on this bet.
Not only that, but the brand new OC+ trends tool shows us he's hit a home run in two of his last 10 games. Between that and his massive expected value tonight, this bet is a no-brainer.
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Seattle Mariners vs. Boston Red Sox Prediction
Rafael Devers is leading the Red Sox with 23 home runs this season, which is also tied for 11th in all of baseball. The hard-hitting third baseman has been on fire, sporting a .341 batting average and 1.086 OPS over the last 30 days, while also tallying six home runs in that span to add to his total.
Tonight, Rafael Devers faces Luis Castillo of the Mariners. While Castillo is a very good pitcher, Devers has hit a home run off him before and has just nine career at-bats against him. Castillo has not been perfect this season and has given up 15 home runs this season.
The common theme for Castillo is struggling against left-handed hitters. Luis Castillo is giving up a .273 batting average and .804 OPS to left-handed hitters, while he has been much more dominant against right-handed hitters, allowing just a .200 batting average and .565 OPS.
Of the 15 home runs Castillo has given up this season, 10 have come against left-handed hitters. Castillo is giving up double the home runs to left-handed hitters despite having 33 fewer at-bats against lefties.
Rafael Devers has hit six home runs against right-handed pitching over his last 48 at-bats in 22 games total during this span. As one of the main power hitters for the Red Sox who has also hit a homer off Castillo in just nine at-bats before, I love him to go yard tonight at a pretty good price. We are still getting over +300 on him, which is more than good enough for me to pull the trigger on this one.
Seattle Mariners vs. Boston Red Sox Betting Pick
Pick: Rafael Devers to Hit a Home Run +340 CLICK HERE TO SEE WHICH SPORTSBOOK HAS THE BEST ODDS
MLB ODDS
