Padres vs. Yankees Prediction, Betting Pick, Latest MLB Odds for Wednesday's Amazon Prime Showdown
The San Diego Padres and New York Yankees will air their rubber match on Amazon Prime tonight with two aces on the mound. Can Dylan Cease find his footing and help the Padres upset the red-hot Max Fried and Yankees tonight? Jason Radowitz previews this showdown and gives his best Padres vs. Yankees betting pick for Wednesday, May 7th.
Jason Radowitz - May 7, 2025, 12:21 PM EDT
5 minPadres vs. Yankees Prediction, Betting Pick, Latest MLB Odds for Wednesday's Amazon Prime Showdown
The San Diego Padres (23-12) will take on the New York Yankees (20-16) in tonight's rubber match of a three-game series in Yankee Stadium.
The Yankees led the Padres late in the first game of this series. However, consistent rain and an inconsistent bullpen led the Yankees to lose in Game 1. However, the Yankees stormed back with 12 runs in the second game, after adding ten runs in the 7th inning, to win 12-3.
Now it all comes down to tonight's game for the series.
The Padres will send out right-hander Dylan Cease. While he's typically a reliable starter, Cease has a 5.61 ERA to begin his season.
On the other hand, the Yankees will give the ball to Max Fried. The former Braves starter has been remarkable for the pinstripes this season. Fried has a 6-0 record with a 1.01 ERA. Another insane start from Fried could put his ERA below 1.
However, Fried's success might not be sustainable, especially against the Padres. So, let's discuss it.
Here are our picks, predictions, and odds for tonight's interleague matchup between the San Diego Padres and the New York Yankees.
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Padres vs. Yankees Odds
- Moneyline: Yankees (-178), Padres (+150)
- Runline: Yankees -1.5 (+116), Padres +1.5 (-140)
- Total: Over 8 (-106), Under 8 (-114)
Padres vs. Yankees Date, Time, and Where to Watch
- Date: Wednesday, May 7, 2025
- Time: 7:05 PM ET
- Where to Watch: Amazon Prime Video, MLBN
Click here to see complete Padres vs. Yankees Odds
Padres vs. Yankees Prediction
The San Diego Padres are nine games above .500 despite their ace starter, Dylan Cease, struggling.
Cease has a 5.61 ERA on the season and has allowed a .153 ISO and wOBA of .348 to his first 153 batters this season. Still, he's struck out 25.5% of batters and has thrown over 90 pitches per start this season.
Tonight, he'll battle a Yankees lineup that has hit a .178 ISO and wOBA of .339 against righties over the last month. Trent Grisham, Aaron Judge, and Ben Rice have been the main contributors for this offense against righties lately.
Ultimately, the last five batters in the Yankees lineup have all hit a wOBA of no better than .296 against righties. The lineup has also collectively struck out 22% of the time over the last 30 days, giving reason to believe Cease can deliver a solid performance.
On the other hand, Max Fried has been the best pitcher in the MLB. Although he's not getting a high rate of strikeouts, he's still given up just a .078 ISO and wOBA of .243 against his last 181 batters. Fried has also induced 52% of grounders and has allowed below 19% of line drives this season.
The lefty has struck out just 19.5% of righties and will likely face seven righties in the San Diego lineup. After all, San Diego hasn't hit for much power. The projected lineup has also hit a .286 wOBA against lefties over the last month. But the Padres should still be able to put the ball in play.
San Diego has struck out only 13.4% of the time against lefties using their projected lineup. When you put the ball in play, good things will happen.
It's also hard to sustain Fried is success, especially with getting only 21.5% of strikeouts. Give me the Padres at +150.
Padres vs. Yankees Pick
- Pick: Padres ML (+150) Click here to see which sportsbooks have the best Padres vs. Yankees odds
MLB ODDS
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