Best MLB Bets Today: HR Picks, Stolen Bases Bets for Friday, May 16
On a full Friday slate, how should you be betting MLB? Can you trust Juan Soto in his return to Yankee Stadium, or are there other Mets presenting value? While Wrigley Field is a great place for home runs today, what stadium actually has a higher expected HR rate? We break all that down on long shots to bet for Friday, May 16.
Charlie DiSturco - May 16, 2025, 3:43 PM EDT
5 minBest MLB Bets Today: HR Picks and Stolen Bases Bets for Friday, May 16
We've got a full Friday slate highlighted by none other than the highly-anticipated Subway Series. Juan Soto returns to Yankee Stadium after leaving across town to join the Mets in free agency. How should you be betting that game?
We dive into Friday's MLB slate with a handful of long shots to consider betting. Let's get into it.
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Best MLB Bets Today: Friday, May 16
Brenton Doyle (+310) & Jordan Beck (+320) to Steal a Base Click here to see which sportsbook has the best odds
The last time we faded Corbin Burnes in the stolen base market, we cashed with a Tyrone Taylor prop north of 7-to-1. While the odds won’t be as high this time, it’s worth looking at the duo atop the Rockies lineup: Brenton Doyle and Jordan Beck.
Doyle has long been the leadoff hitter for Colorado while Beck has supplanted himself in the two hole thanks to his production (team-leading 6 HRs). The two also lead the team in stolen bases, with Beck (5) just one ahead of Doyle (4).
Anytime you can look to fade Burnes in the stolen base market, you should. He is dead last in net bases prevented (-21) and has allowed 44 stolen bases over the last two seasons, per Swish Analytics. In all, opponents have an 86% success rate against Burnes.
While Doyle has struggled to get on base this season, he is a speed threat whenever he gets on base. Last season, the third-year pro stole 30 bases in what was his breakout year. Jordan Beck, meanwhile, struggled in 2024, and didn’t have as many stolen base opportunities as a byproduct. But as he’s adjusted to the bigs, his success has followed suit (.257 average, .836 OPS).
Burnes has really shown some cracks over the last few seasons. His strikeout rate has fallen every single year since 2020 and enters Friday with a career-worst 19.8 K%. He is walking batters more, allowing a near-47% hard-hit rate (also a career low) and has an xERA over 1.5 runs higher than actual.
Negative regression should come soon for Burnes and I’m happy to fade him in the stolen base market each time he takes the mound. While the Rockies offense is putrid - it’s all the more reason to get aggressive on the base paths. Trust Doyle (+310) and Beck (+320) to swipe a bag here against their NL West foe.
Kyle Manzardo (+350) & Nolan Jones (+750) to Hit a Home Run Click here to see which sportsbook has the best odds
Everyone is looking to back home runs in Wrigley and for good reason - the wind is blowing out and it’s a standalone Friday afternoon game. But the odds have been significantly juiced down as a byproduct.
Instead of attacking that game, you should consider looking at Cleveland vs. Cincinnati, where there’s actually a higher home run rate expected! Per Ballpark Pal, Great American Ball Park should see +0.88 HRs more than the MLB average. Wrigley Field is slightly below at +0.84.
The main player that I’m targeting is Kyle Manzardo, who gets a great matchup against Brady Singer. He has faced Singer five times, hitting a pair of doubles off the right-hander. In general, Singer does not generate a ton of swings and misses and is a fly-ball pitcher; pair that with a near double-digit barrel rate and home runs can come aplenty. He’s allowed one HR in each of his last six starts.
Singer has also notoriously struggled against left-handed hitters, with 24% of all hits allowed leaving the park this season. Even last year, Singer’s splits were night and day. Lefties hit .291 with a .855 OPS, while righties went .208 and .563, respectively.
Manzardo (+350) is Cleveland’s most consistent power bat. He is about as boom or bust as it gets, but when he gets ahold of one - it’s oftentimes a no doubter. Manzardo has 10 home runs in 153 plate appearances this season with a career-best 15.1 barrel% to show for.
If you want to take a long shot, consider Nolan Jones (+750). His last three balls put in play have all been 105+ off the bat and he’s a power-hitting lefty. Jones has really struggled this season but has been quite unlucky. His xSLG (.467) is way higher than actual (.292), and he does rank in the 88th percentile in hard-hit rate (51.6%).
The underlying metrics are promising for Jones if he can shore up his strikeout issues (29.5%). It’s worth a long shot in a plus matchup against Singer.
Hot: Pete Alonso to Hit a Home Run (+350) Click here to see which sportsbook has the best odds
If you’re looking to bet the Subway Series, my favorite home run pick there is Pete Alonso (+350). He has been on a home run drought of late but continues to put up elite underlying metrics.
Alonso is in the 98th percentile of better in barrels (18.5%), average exit velocity (95.1mph) and hard-hit rate (58.9%). He has really shored up his batter’s eye and has become an MVP candidate in 2025.
Carlos Rodon takes the mound for New York and while he’s been much better this season for the Yankees, he is still a perfect fade when it comes to home run betting. The southpaw is fresh off a multi-homer game his last time out and should struggle once again here.
While Rodon’s ground ball rate is up, he is still throwing the fastball 40% of the time. Those home run numbers we saw skyrocket the last two seasons - 2.1 HR/9 in 2023 and 1.59 in 2024 - should be the norm for the hard-throwing lefty.
This should be an entertaining series but I’m happy to pluck off a bad number on Alonso against a pitcher like Rodon who is notorious for his home run issues. Plus this game is at Yankee Stadium - hitter’s paradise.
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