Donald Trump Approval Rating Falls to Lowest of Presidency - Latest President Trump Approval Rating Odds
Kalshi traders are pricing how low President Donald Trump's approval rating will fall before the end of 2026, with the market increasingly focused on whether the national polling average can break below 37%. With Trump's approval under pressure ahead of the midterm elections, how much further could the decline go before the calendar turns to 2027? Check out the latest Trump approval rating prediction-market odds and outlook.
Peter Alexis - August 20, 2026, 11:50 AM EDT
4 Minute ReadWill President Trump's Approval Rating Continue Falling or Recover Before Midterms?
Trump's approval-rating market currently carries a 36.4 forecast, down 0.1, with more than $355,000 in trading volume. Below 37% is now the clear favorite at 69%, while the market gives Trump a 37% chance of falling below 36% and a 30% chance of dropping below 35%.
The distinction between individual polls and the market's resolution criteria is important. These contracts resolve using Trump's VoteHub polling average, and a threshold only needs to be reached once before December 31. VoteHub currently has Trump around 39% approval, meaning even the leading Below 37% contract still requires another meaningful decline in the broader polling average rather than one unusually poor survey.
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Latest Trump Approval Rating Odds From Kalshi
Outcome | Implied Probability |
|---|---|
Below 37% | 69% |
Below 36% | 37% |
Below 35% | 30%% |
Below 37% (69% Chance)
Below 37% has climbed four points to 69%, making it the market's strongest expectation. The move comes as individual surveys have started producing some of the weakest numbers of Trump's second term, including a Reuters/Ipsos poll released this week that placed his approval at just 33%.
That single 33% result does not automatically trigger this contract because VoteHub uses an aggregate, but it demonstrates how much downside currently exists within the polling environment. Trump's broader numbers have been pressured by dissatisfaction over the economy and foreign policy, while recent surveys have also shown weakening support among independents and some Republican voters.
The strongest case for Below 37% is simply the amount of time remaining. The market only needs the VoteHub average to cross the line once over the next four months, and the current polling range already contains results several points below that threshold. At 69%, traders increasingly view a temporary break under 37% as more likely than not.
Below 36% (37% Chance)
The market becomes much more cautious once the target moves another full point lower. Below 36% is priced at 37%, down six points, showing traders are distinguishing between a modest deterioration in Trump's aggregate and a more sustained drop into historically weak territory.
Trump has already reached 35% and lower in individual Reuters/Ipsos polling this summer, including 35% earlier in August before falling to 33% in the latest survey. The challenge is getting enough other polling organizations to move in the same direction for the VoteHub average itself to fall below 36%.
That makes this threshold much more dependent on what happens between now and the November midterms. Continued economic frustration, elevated energy prices or another unpopular political development could push the average lower, while any improvement in those areas could stabilize Trump's numbers before the aggregate reaches 35-point territory.
Below 35% (30% Chance)
Below 35% has fallen three points to 30%, making it a clear long-shot outcome despite the recent Reuters/Ipsos result. A 33% individual poll proves that approval at this level is possible, but pushing a multi-poll average below 35% requires a much broader collapse across surveys.
Trump's current VoteHub average remains around 39%, so this contract needs roughly another four-point move in the aggregate. That is significant for a president whose approval has already become highly polarized, with a substantial floor of Republican voters continuing to support him even as independents and other groups have become more negative.
The 30% price therefore reflects a scenario that is plausible without being the market's base case. Another sustained deterioration in economic sentiment or foreign-policy approval could move this contract quickly, particularly because the threshold needs to be touched only once rather than maintained through Election Day or the end of the year.
Trump Approval Rating Betting Outlook
The market's 36.4 forecast fits the current polling environment well. Trump's individual poll numbers have already demonstrated enough weakness to make Below 37% a realistic target, but the VoteHub average has remained more resilient because it smooths out individual outliers and incorporates a wider range of polling.
That makes 37% the key dividing line. At 69%, traders are increasingly expecting the aggregate to reach that level at least once before 2027, while Below 36% and Below 35% require a more substantial and sustained deterioration. With the midterms approaching and Trump's approval already near some of the weakest levels of his second term, this market could remain highly sensitive to every major polling release through the fall.
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