MLB Best Bets Today: Strikeout Props, Totals, NRFI Picks for Saturday, May 10
Carlos Rodon and the Yankees will visit the Athletics in the afternoon, and the Mets and Cubs will square off for an NL showdown later tonight. Matt MacKay brings us his favorite MLB bets today, including player props, F5 totals, and NRFI picks for Saturday, May 10th.
Matt MacKay - May 10, 2025, 3:55 PM EDT
5 minMLB Best Bets Today: Strikeout Props, Totals, NRFI Picks for Saturday, May 10
All 30 MLB franchises will compete on Saturday's loaded 15-game slate. We've got a lot of value to acquire based on the volume of matchups and MLB betting markets available to target.
MLB handicapper Matt MacKay has three best bets, each worth one unit, to place on Saturday, May 10th. He'll dive into game props and player props, using updated MLB betting odds. Follow Matt's X account for more MLB betting insight and free picks during the 2025 MLB season.
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MLB Best Bets Today: Saturday, May 10th
1. Carlos Rodon Over 6.5 Strikeouts (+124) Click here to see which sportsbook has the best odds
New York Yankees pitcher Carlos Rodon takes the mound against the Sacramento Athletics on Saturday's early afternoon slate. Rodon is coming off of a solid outing against the Padres, allowing three hits, one walk, and zero earned runs with five strikeouts.
San Diego strikes out the second least in the MLB, averaging 6.95 strikeouts per game this season. This explains why Rodon only wound up with five strikeouts, well below his typical range between seven to nine strikeouts.
The Athletics, surprisingly, are one of the best lineups when it comes to avoiding strikeouts. Sacramento ranks fourth in fewest strikeouts per game in 2025 (7.41) but they have trended up a bit in their last three games, averaging 8 strikeouts per contest.
Rodon's four-seamer is lethal and he's great at getting ahead in the count. Through eight starts, Rodon has gone over 6.5 strikeouts six times. He's also pitched at least 6.0 innings in six of eight starts, so Rodon will have plenty of volume to rack up seven punch outs.
Let's bet a unit on Rodon to finish with seven or more strikeouts at +124 odds.
2. Atlanta Braves vs. Pittsburgh Pirates First 5 Innings Total Runs Under 4.5 (+104) Click here to see which sportsbook has the best odds
We'll pivot to the First 5 Innings market next. Let's target a pair of National League lineups who have struggled to string together consistent offense. Runs will likely remain a premium between the Braves and Pirates.
The Pirates beat the Braves 3-2 on Friday night during the first game of their series at PNC Park. Today, Andrew Heaney takes the bump for Pittsburgh, looking to bounce back from back-to-back poor performances against the Cubs and Padres. Heaney has a 3.18 ERA and a 2-3 record for the Pirates.
Atlanta is trotting out AJ Smith-Shawver as their starting pitcher today. The 22-year-old didn't allow a run during the Braves' 4-0 shutout win over Cincinnati in his last start on May 5th. Smith-Shawver got a 3.00 ERA and hasn't surrendered more than two runs in four of his last five starts.
Pittsburgh's averaging 0.33 runs in the first five innings in their last three games played. This is last in the MLB. On the year, the Pirates are third worst in this metric, averaging 1.77 runs across the first five innings, ranked 28th in front of only Colorado and Miami.
Atlanta is averaging 1.00 runs per first five innings in their last three games, while sitting at 2.03 runs in 2025. Oddsmakers have juice on over 4.5 total runs, while under 4.5 total runs is available to bet at +104 odds.
Two solid pitchers are facing lineups that struggle to hit the baseball. Let's bet a unit on under 4.5 total runs between the Braves and Pirates on Saturday.
3. Chicago Cubs vs. New York Mets No Runs First Inning (-113) Click here to see which sportsbook has the best odds
We'll wrap up with a prime-time NRFI (No Run First Inning) bet and head to Citi Field when the New York Mets host the Chicago Cubs. These are two of the top teams in the National League, with plenty of star power on display with both rosters.
Despite how well these lineups have played at the plate in 2025, the first inning hasn't yielded a lot of runs for either side. The Mets are averaging 0.33 runs in the first inning across their last three games, which came from Francisco Lindor's lead-off home run against the Cubs on Friday night.
The Cubs haven't scored a run in the first inning in three straight games. In 2025, Chicago is averaging 0.62 runs in the opening frame, ranked ninth-most in the MLB. However, they are slumping out of the gate right now, while preparing to face Mets pitcher Tylor Megill.
Megill is 3-2 with a 2.50 ERA and hasn't allowed a first inning run in seven starts entering tonight's National League showdown against the Cubs.
Cade Horton is expected to make his debut on the bump for Chicago. The Mets have plenty of power hitters at the top of their lineup, like Francisco Lindor, Juan Soto, and Pete Alonso, which makes this NRFI a bold wager.
However, the Mets are averaging 0.38 runs in the first inning this season, ranked 25th in the MLB. The Marlins and Pirates are also ranked near the bottom of the league with New York when it comes to first inning runs at 0.38.
Let's cheer for six outs without a run to start Saturday's game between the Cubs and Mets.
MLB Best Bets Today: Saturday, May 10th
- Carlos Rodon Over 6.5 Strikeouts (+124)
- Braves vs. Pirates First 5 Innings Total Runs Under 4.5 (+104)
- Cubs vs. Mets No Runs First Inning (-113)
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