Best MLB Pitcher Props: Expect Strong Outings from Merrill Kelly, Hunter Brown on Wednesday, July 2nd
Hunter Brown is in the conversation for the American League Cy Young Award. He had a 1.19 ERA in June and has a 32.1% strikeout rate on the season, and faces the team with the worst strikeout rate against right-handers. Merrill Kelly has 73 strikeouts over his last 60.1 innings and isn't priced that way. Here are the player props to cash for the duo on Wednesday from Adam Ronis.
Adam Ronis - July 2, 2025, 2:13 PM EDT
4 Minute ReadBest MLB Pitcher Props: Expect Strong Outings from Merrill Kelly, Hunter Brown on Wednesday, July 2nd
Hunter Brown has been one of the best pitchers in baseball with a 1.74 ERA and is seventh in the majors with 118 strikeouts. Merrill Kelly hasn’t been as dominant, but he has cashed a prop in 10 straight games. Here are the player props to look at for the pitchers on Wednesday.
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Best MLB Props: Wednesday, July 2nd
Hunter Brown Over 6.5 Strikeouts (-120) Click here to see which sportsbook has the best odds
Hunter Brown has been one of the best pitchers in the American League this season and is third in odds for the Cy Young Award behind Tarik Skubal and Garret Crochet. Brown is 8-3 with a 1.74 ERA, 0.89 WHIP, 32.1% strikeout rate and 7.6% walk rate.
The Astros right-hander is in the 92nd percentile of strikeout rate and 96th percentile of hard hit rate. He has a whiff rate of at least 30.8% on three pitches. He has at least eight strikeouts in nine of his last 12 starts. Brown has struck out 34 over his last 24.1 innings.
The challenge for Brown is the heat and pitching in Coors Field. While the Rockies offense has been better recently, they still strike out a lot. Over the last two weeks, the Rockies have a 31.8% strikeout rate against right-handers. For the season, the Rockies are the worst team in strikeouts against righties with a 27% strikeout rate.
Merrill Kelly Over 5.5 Strikeouts (-130) Click here to see which sportsbook has the best odds
Merrill Kelly has 100 strikeouts in 98 innings. The Diamondbacks right-hander has a 25.3% strikeout rate, is in the 71st percentile of strikeout rate and 80th percentile of chase rate.
Kelly has at least six strikeouts in 10 straight starts, including at least seven in five straight starts. During that span, he has 73 strikeouts over 60.1 innings. It hasn’t been taking advantage of only high strikeout teams. During the last 10 starts, Kelly has faced the Padres, Nationals, Cardinals and Mets, who all rank in the Top 10 for toughest teams to strike out against righties.
The Giants have a 22% strikeout rate against right-handers, which is the 12th worst in baseball. Kelly faced the Giants on May 12th in San Francisco and struck out eight over seven innings. Ryne Nelson had seven strikeouts on Monday and Zac Gallen struck out 10 against the Giants on Tuesday.
Kelly has pitched at least six innings in 10 of his 17 starts and at least five in 16 starts. If he can go six innings, he needs to average one strikeout per inning to cash the prop.
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