Top 5 MLB Betting Picks for Opening Day - Finding Value with Jacob Misiorowski, Adley Rutschman on March 26th
MLB Opening Day is packed with action on Thursday afternoon, and the Wolf is attacking the best bets. Check out these 5 best player props for Opening Day on March 26th.
The Wolf - March 26, 2026, 10:35 AM EDT
5 Minute Read5 Best MLB Opening Day Bets - Targeting Misiorowski, Rutschman Props on Thursday, March 26th
MLB Opening Day is finally here with a full league slate, but the data environment is unique. Every prop on the board is heavily influenced by last season’s results, with no current-year sample to adjust from.
That creates opportunity. Roles are largely unchanged, players remain on the same teams, and underlying tendencies carry over. The market prices uncertainty. The Wolf leans into proven trends.
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MLB Opening Day Best Prop Bets
1. Adley Rutschman – Under 0.5 Singles (-132) Click here to get the best odds at Caesars Sportsbook
- AI Probability: 75.88%
- Implied Probability: 56.82%
- EV: 33.55%
- Trend: Under in 7 of last 10
Rutschman’s profile leans more toward extra-base impact than consistent singles production. Dating back to last season, he has stayed under this number in 7 of his last 10 games. Opening Day pitching typically features top arms, which limits base-level contact. The under benefits from both player profile and game environment.
2. Andrew Abbott – Over 14.5 Outs (-139) Click here to get the best odds at Caesars Sportsbook
- AI Probability: 77.85%
- Implied Probability: 58.48%
- EV: 33.12%
- Trend: Over in 6 of last 10
Abbott has consistently worked into the sixth inning, clearing this number in 6 of his last 10 outings. Teams often rely on starting pitchers early in the season to stabilize games before bullpens fully ramp up. His efficiency profile supports length rather than volatility. The volume is the edge here.
3. Yoshinobu Yamamoto – Over 16.5 Outs (-102) Click here to get the best odds at Caesars Sportsbook
- AI Probability: 67.2%
- Implied Probability: 50.51%
- EV: 33.06%
- Trend: Over in 8 of last 10
Yamamoto’s consistency stands out, going over this number in 8 of his last 10 appearances. His ability to limit damage and pitch efficiently allows him to work deeper into games. Even in a new season, that skill set translates immediately. The line does not fully reflect his durability.
4. Jacob Misiorowski – Over 1.5 Earned Runs Allowed (+105) Click here to get the best odds at DraftKings Sportsbook
- AI Probability: 64.89%
- Implied Probability: 48.78%
- EV: 33.02%
- Trend: Over in 5 of last 10
Misiorowski’s profile includes swing-and-miss upside, but also inconsistency that leads to runs allowed. Dating back to last year, he has cleared this number in half of his recent outings. Opening Day can amplify early command issues as pitchers adjust to game speed. At plus money, the over holds value.
5. Cade Cavalli – Over 4.5 Hits Allowed (-103) Click here to get the best odds at DraftKings Sportsbook
- AI Probability: 67.28%
- Implied Probability: 50.76%
- EV: 32.54%
- Trend: Over in 7 of last 10
Cavalli has allowed 5 or more hits in 7 of his last 10 starts dating back to last season. His approach allows contact, which increases hit volume even in solid outings. Early-season games often favor hitters timing-wise after multiple looks through the order. The trend and profile align for another over.
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