MLB Best Player Props for Wednesday, September 23rd
Today’s MLB best bets feature player props for Lars Nootbaar, Jeffrey Springs and Mookie Betts. Can recent performance trends and favorable matchups create opportunities in the hits, strikeouts and total bases markets? Check out these MLB best bets and player prop picks for today.
Peter Alexis - September 23, 2026, 5:15 PM EDT
3 Minute ReadMLB Best Bets Today: Top Player Prop Picks Featuring Mookie Betts, Others
Wednesday’s MLB slate offers several ways to approach the player prop board, from identifying vulnerable hitters to targeting pitchers whose recent struggles could shape the game. Today’s three selections cover hits, pitching strikeouts and total bases, with each available at plus-money odds.
The analysis below combines recent performance, matchup considerations and model projections to assess each price. Expected playing time, pitching efficiency and opportunities at the plate are central to these picks, particularly when one early exit or extra-base hit can determine the result.
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MLB Top Player Props Today: Wednesday, September 23rd
Lars Nootbaar Under 0.5 Hits (+190) Check out the best odds at BetMGM Sportsbook
Lars Nootbaar has struggled to produce consistent power or contact this season, evidenced by a modest .376 slugging percentage and .715 OPS. He currently ranks near the bottom of the Arizona lineup in expected base production. The AI model projects Nootbaar for only 0.66 hits in this matchup, resulting in a 51.7% probability that he finishes the night hitless.
At decimal odds of 2.90, the market is mispricing what is essentially a coin-flip outcome. While any player hit prop carries high variance, the +49.9% expected value makes this a mathematically sound fade of a struggling hitter.
Jeffrey Springs Under 4.5 Strikeouts (+119) Check out the best odds at FanDuel Sportsbook
Jeffrey Springs is facing a significant uphill battle in this matchup, making his strikeout Under 4.5 a high-value play at +119. Springs has struggled immensely of late, posting a bloated 8.20 ERA and 1.54 WHIP over his last five starts. In his most recent outing against Tampa Bay, he was chased after just 3.1 innings, managing only one strikeout.
Our model projects him for just 3.5 punchouts today, driven by both his lack of efficiency and the Angels' disciplined lineup. With high-OBP threats like Mike Trout (.384) and Wade Meckler (.368) forcing deep counts, Springs is unlikely to survive long enough to rack up high strikeout numbers. The +58.9% expected value suggests the market has significantly undervalued the likelihood of a short, ineffective outing from the Athletics left-hander.
Mookie Betts Over 1.5 Total Bases (+140) Check out the best odds at DraftKings Sportsbook
Mookie Betts presents significant value at +140 odds (2.40) to clear 1.5 total bases against Padres left-hander Robbie Ray. Ray has struggled immensely of late, posting a bloated 7.53 ERA and 1.72 WHIP over his last five starts, including giving up four home runs in his most recent 24.2 innings. Betts, slashing for a .454 slugging percentage, anchors a Dodgers offense projected to score 4.85 runs in this contest.
The predictive model projects Betts for 2.30 total bases, well above the 1.5 threshold. Despite the risk of walks from Ray’s 3.0 BB/start average, Betts' ability to exploit Ray's elevated 4.70 FIP makes this a high-EV play.
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