Heisman Watch: CJ Carr New Favorite After Taking Down Darian Mensah, Undefeated Hurricanes
CJ Carr has become the new Heisman Trophy favorite after leading Notre Dame past Miami, while Darian Mensah remains close behind despite losing the head-to-head showdown. Jeremiah Smith continues sliding as Ohio State struggles without Julian Sayin, leaving the door open for several quarterbacks to make a late November charge. Check out the latest 2026 Heisman Trophy odds entering Week 11.
Peter Alexis - November 10, 2026, 4:34 PM EST
5 Minute Read2026 Heisman Trophy Odds: CJ Carr Takes Lead After Notre Dame Beats Miami
For the first time all season, the Heisman race feels completely open. Carr owns the strongest position after beating Mensah and previously No. 1 Miami 31-24, but his statistics are hardly overwhelming compared with recent Heisman-winning quarterbacks. Mensah still owns the better raw numbers, Smith remains the most dominant individual skill player and several quarterbacks further down the board have three games left to manufacture their own Heisman moment.
Miami's situation has also changed dramatically with Malachi Toney expected to miss at least the remainder of the regular season following ankle surgery. His absence removes one of the leading contenders while also making Mensah's job considerably harder. With Smith similarly dealing with the loss of his starting quarterback, the award increasingly looks like it could belong to whichever quarterback finishes November with the strongest combination of wins, statistics and signature performances.
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CJ Carr +150 Check out these best odds at DraftKings Sportsbook
Carr delivered exactly the performance he needed against Miami, completing 29 of 40 passes for 319 yards and three touchdowns without an interception in Notre Dame's 31-24 win. The Irish built a 24-3 advantage before surviving Miami's comeback, giving Carr a signature victory directly over one of his primary Heisman competitors.
Through nine games, Carr has completed 177 of 262 passes for 2,168 yards, 21 touchdowns and only one interception. He has added 89 rushing yards and three touchdowns, giving him 24 total scores while Notre Dame has climbed to 8-1.
The head-to-head advantage over Mensah is enormous in a race this close. Carr was the better quarterback for most of the biggest game either player has played this season, and Notre Dame now has the stronger recent résumé.
Boston College, SMU and Syracuse remain on the regular-season schedule. Carr does not need historic statistics from here. If Notre Dame finishes 11-1 and he continues protecting the football while producing two or three touchdowns per week, the burden may shift to everyone else to take the award away from him.
Darian Mensah +280 Check out these best odds at FanDuel Sportsbook
Mensah's Heisman case took its first major hit against Notre Dame, but he still nearly brought Miami all the way back from a 21-point deficit. He completed 24 of 43 passes for 276 yards, three touchdowns and one interception after entering halftime with only 74 passing yards.
His season numbers remain far superior to Carr's. Mensah has completed 212 of 276 passes for 2,701 yards, 28 touchdowns and only two interceptions through nine games, maintaining a remarkable 76.8% completion rate. He has added two rushing touchdowns for 30 total scores.
The question is how much the head-to-head loss matters. Notre Dame now owns the signature result, and Carr clearly controlled the first half while Mensah struggled without Toney. Miami's offense no longer has its most explosive receiver available to stretch defenses and create easy opportunities.
Mensah gets Duke next before Miami closes against Virginia Tech and Boston College. He still has enough statistical upside to regain the lead, but Carr has created a situation where Mensah probably needs to substantially outperform him over the final three weeks rather than simply match his production.
Jeremiah Smith +300 Check out these best odds at BetMGM Sportsbook
Smith remains the most statistically dominant player among the favorites, but circumstances around him continue to destroy what once looked like a commanding Heisman advantage. He caught seven passes for 133 yards and a touchdown against Oregon, yet Ohio State lost 41-28 for its second consecutive defeat with Sayin unavailable.
The junior now has 69 receptions for 1,200 yards and 14 touchdowns through nine games. He leads the country in receiving touchdowns and sits near the top nationally in receiving yards while averaging 17.4 yards per reception.
Those numbers would normally make Smith incredibly difficult to beat. The problem is that Ohio State has dropped to 6-3, losing consecutive games to USC and Oregon after Sayin's shoulder injury forced a quarterback change. Smith has continued producing, but the Buckeyes are no longer providing him with the championship-contender narrative that helped create his early lead.
Northwestern comes to Columbus next before Ohio State faces Nebraska and Michigan. Smith probably needs huge production and a three-game winning streak to reclaim control, because a receiver on a three- or four-loss team will have difficulty beating quarterbacks leading playoff contenders regardless of how extraordinary his statistics are.
Devon Dampier +1500 Check out these best odds at DraftKings Sportsbook
Dampier has suddenly become one of the most dangerous long shots on the board after leading undefeated Utah past BYU 28-20. He threw for 177 yards and two touchdowns while rushing 20 times for 89 yards and two more scores, accounting for all four Utah touchdowns in the rivalry victory.
Through nine games, Dampier has thrown for 2,053 yards, 20 touchdowns and seven interceptions while completing 68.0% of his passes. His rushing production changes the profile completely, with 480 yards and seven touchdowns giving him 2,533 yards of total offense and 27 total scores.
More importantly, Utah is 9-0. Dampier now quarterbacks one of the only remaining undefeated teams in the country, and his four-touchdown performance against BYU gives him the type of November moment that can suddenly launch a late Heisman campaign.
Utah travels to Arizona before facing TCU and West Virginia. If the Utes finish 12-0 and Dampier produces another few games with three or four total touchdowns, +1500 could disappear quickly in a race where none of the favorites has built an unbeatable résumé.
Drew Mestemaker +1800 Check out these best odds at Caesars Sportsbook
No contender on the board is producing bigger passing numbers than Mestemaker right now. He completed 22 of 28 passes for 313 yards and four touchdowns in Oklahoma State's 66-28 win over Kansas State while also accounting for two scores on the ground.
Mestemaker has completed 206 of 309 passes for 2,962 yards, 29 touchdowns and eight interceptions through nine games. He is averaging 329.1 passing yards per game and has added 177 rushing yards and three touchdowns, giving him more than 3,100 yards of total offense.
His last three games have been absurd statistically. Mestemaker has thrown for 1,022 yards and 13 touchdowns over that stretch, including five touchdown passes in a 51-49 loss at Iowa State.
The problem is Oklahoma State's 6-3 record. Texas Tech visits Stillwater next, giving Mestemaker a chance to beat a ranked opponent and add legitimacy to the huge numbers. If he finishes with something approaching 4,000 passing yards and 40 touchdowns while the Cowboys close on a winning streak, this race is open enough for voters to notice.
Keelon Russell +2500 Check out these best odds at DraftKings Sportsbook
Russell is quietly beginning another late push after Alabama's 31-13 road win at LSU. He completed 17 of 24 passes for 206 yards and three touchdowns without an interception while adding 25 rushing yards.
The sophomore has completed 165 of 245 passes for 2,263 yards, 18 touchdowns and five interceptions while rushing for 276 yards and five more scores. That gives him 2,539 yards of total offense and 23 touchdowns through nine games.
His Heisman case appeared finished after consecutive losses to Georgia and Tennessee, but Alabama has responded by beating Texas A&M and LSU while Russell has thrown six touchdowns over those two games. The Crimson Tide are back to 7-2 and firmly involved in the postseason race.
Russell visits Vanderbilt next before Alabama finishes against Chattanooga and Auburn. He would need a spectacular closing stretch, but a quarterback leading Alabama into the SEC Championship conversation will always have a path if the players ahead of him stumble.
Is the Heisman Now CJ Carr's to Lose?
Carr has earned the lead, but calling this a settled race would be premature. He has only 2,168 passing yards through nine games and does not possess the massive statistical résumé normally associated with a runaway quarterback favorite.
What Carr has is the defining result. He beat Mensah directly, threw three touchdowns against previously undefeated Miami and gave Notre Dame its biggest victory of the season. With an extremely manageable finishing schedule, Carr can protect his position simply by continuing to win and avoiding a major statistical collapse.
Mensah remains the most obvious challenger because his season totals are significantly better. The Miami quarterback already has 28 touchdown passes and only two interceptions, but losing to Carr means he likely needs to clearly outperform him throughout the final three games.
Smith would normally still have an excellent argument with 1,200 receiving yards and 14 touchdowns, but Ohio State's collapse following Sayin's injury has damaged him more than his own performance ever could. His path now requires both monster individual numbers and a Buckeyes rebound.
That leaves room for someone to come from deeper on the board. Dampier is undefeated and just produced four touchdowns in a rivalry win. Mestemaker could approach 4,000 passing yards and 40 touchdowns. Russell still has the Alabama platform and meaningful late-season games.
Unlike many recent seasons, there is no quarterback from an undefeated top team simultaneously posting historic numbers. Carr has the lead and the head-to-head advantage, but one bad performance could reopen everything. With three regular-season games remaining for most contenders, the 2026 Heisman Trophy is still available for anyone who can put together a dominant November finish.
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