College Football Playoff Odds: Do Ole Miss, LSU, Other Bubble Teams Stand a Chance With Three Losses?
Georgia, Notre Dame, Alabama and Miami have nearly solidified College Football Playoff spots, while undefeated Utah and UCLA also hold commanding positions entering the final three weeks. The intrigue begins with Texas and a crowded bubble where several three-loss SEC and Big Ten teams could ultimately reach the 12-team field. Check out the latest 2026 College Football Playoff odds entering mid-November.
Peter Alexis - November 10, 2026, 5:37 PM EST
5 Minute Read2026 College Football Playoff Odds: Three-Loss Teams Crowd Wide-Open Bubble
The top of the playoff picture is beginning to stabilize. Georgia is virtually locked in at -9000, followed by Notre Dame at -4000, Alabama at -3000, Miami at -2500, Indiana at -1300, Utah at -700 and UCLA at -430. All seven would need significant late collapses to fall completely out of the field.
After that group, very little is settled. Texas is strongly positioned at -380, but the board then jumps to Boise State at -160 and Wake Forest at -105 before moving into plus money. With the 2026 format guaranteeing spots to the four power-conference champions and the highest-ranked champion from the remaining conferences, several teams with three losses could still receive at-large bids depending on how conference races and the final three weeks unfold.
2026 College Football Playoff Odds
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College Football Playoff Bubble Odds Breakdown
Texas -380 Check out these best odds at DraftKings Sportsbook
Texas enters the stretch run at 7-2 and has rebuilt its playoff position with consecutive wins over Ole Miss, Mississippi State and Missouri following back-to-back losses to Oklahoma and Florida. The Longhorns also still own arguably the best nonconference win on the board after beating Ohio State earlier in the season.
The path remains difficult with road trips to LSU and Texas A&M surrounding a home game against Arkansas. Going 2-1 likely keeps Texas in strong at-large position, while winning out would make the Longhorns extremely difficult to leave out and could still put them into the SEC Championship conversation.
Boise State -160 Check out these best odds at DraftKings Sportsbook
Boise State has recovered from its opening loss at Oregon to reach 8-1, including a wild 46-45 escape against Texas State followed by a 64-38 road win over Colorado State. The Broncos have quietly positioned themselves as one of the leading candidates for the automatic berth awarded to the highest-ranked champion outside the four major conferences.
Oregon State and San Diego State are the only regular-season games left. Boise does not possess the résumé for a comfortable at-large bid, so winning the Pac-12 remains the cleanest path. The biggest threat may be New Mexico continuing to win and finishing higher in the committee's rankings.
Wake Forest -105 Check out these best odds at DraftKings Sportsbook
Wake Forest is 8-1 with its only defeat coming against Miami, and the Demon Deacons have responded by winning six straight. Their last two games have been complete destructions of Virginia and Merrimack by a combined score of 128-7.
The season essentially turns on Saturday's trip to SMU. Georgia Tech and Duke follow, giving Wake a realistic path to 11-1 and potentially the ACC Championship Game. At that record, the Demon Deacons would have a strong at-large case even without winning the conference.
Tennessee +130 Check out these best odds at DraftKings Sportsbook
Tennessee improved to 7-2 by crushing Kentucky 34-6, adding another quality result to a résumé already highlighted by a 26-10 win over Alabama. The losses to Texas and South Carolina are manageable enough that the Volunteers remain firmly on the bubble.
The closing schedule gives Tennessee control over its fate. The Vols travel to Texas A&M, host LSU and finish at Vanderbilt. Winning out should put them into the playoff, while a 2-1 finish at 9-3 would create exactly the type of three-loss résumé that could test the committee.
New Mexico +160 Check out these best odds at DraftKings Sportsbook
New Mexico has become one of the best stories in college football at 8-1, with the lone defeat a competitive 14-6 loss at Oklahoma. The Lobos have won six straight and just dominated Nevada 31-3 on the road.
UNLV, Wyoming and Air Force remain. Like Boise State, New Mexico's most realistic path is becoming the highest-ranked champion from outside the four power conferences. If both teams win out, their conference championship results and committee positioning could determine one of the final automatic spots.
LSU +172 Check out these best odds at DraftKings Sportsbook
LSU sits at 6-3 after a damaging 31-13 home loss to Alabama, adding a third defeat to earlier losses against Ole Miss and Kentucky. The Tigers still own victories over Texas A&M, Mississippi State and Auburn, but there is essentially no margin left.
That makes the remaining schedule fascinating. Texas visits Baton Rouge before LSU travels to Tennessee and Arkansas. Beating both Texas and Tennessee could turn a three-loss LSU team into one of the strongest bubble candidates in the country, while another defeat probably ends the discussion.
Ole Miss +175 Check out these best odds at DraftKings Sportsbook
Ole Miss is also 6-3 after Georgia dismantled the Rebels 42-7 in Oxford. The result was particularly damaging because Ole Miss already had losses to Florida and Texas, although wins over LSU, Missouri and Auburn keep the résumé from collapsing completely.
The closing schedule is considerably easier with Oklahoma, Wofford and Mississippi State remaining. A 9-3 finish is very realistic, but the Rebels may need help because the Georgia loss was so decisive. Ole Miss now needs its quality wins to hold up while other bubble teams accumulate additional defeats.
Iowa +205 Check out these best odds at DraftKings Sportsbook
Iowa enters at 7-2 and has quietly constructed an interesting profile. The Hawkeyes own road wins at Michigan and Washington, while their losses came against Ohio State and Minnesota.
Purdue, Illinois and Nebraska remain, creating one of the softer closing schedules among the bubble teams. An Iowa team that finishes 10-2 would be extremely difficult to exclude, particularly if the Hawkeyes continue climbing while other Big Ten contenders beat each other.
Kentucky +230 Check out these best odds at DraftKings Sportsbook
Kentucky fell to 7-2 after getting blown out 34-6 at Tennessee, significantly weakening what had been one of the strongest surprise résumés in the country. The Wildcats still own wins over LSU, Texas A&M and Oklahoma, but the losses to Alabama and Tennessee were both decisive.
Florida, Missouri and Louisville remain. Kentucky probably needs to win all three to feel comfortable at 10-2, while 9-3 would put it directly into the crowded SEC comparison with Tennessee, LSU, Ole Miss and potentially South Carolina.
BYU +255 Check out these best odds at DraftKings Sportsbook
BYU is 7-2 after losing 28-20 at undefeated Utah, its second defeat in three weeks following the earlier upset at UCF. The Cougars' 28-24 win over Notre Dame remains one of the strongest individual results held by any bubble team.
Baylor, Kansas and Cincinnati close the schedule. Winning out would leave BYU at 10-2 with the Notre Dame victory as a major argument, but missing the Big 12 Championship could leave the Cougars vulnerable to teams with stronger overall schedules.
Texas Tech +270 Check out these best odds at DraftKings Sportsbook
Texas Tech is 8-1 and has the best record among the teams sitting this far down the market. The only loss came at Cincinnati, while the Red Raiders own wins over Houston and Arizona and just survived a 53-48 shootout against West Virginia.
The remaining games against Oklahoma State, Baylor and TCU are manageable. A 11-1 finish should put Texas Tech into serious playoff position and could also send the Red Raiders to the Big 12 Championship Game. The issue is that the schedule lacks the elite victory possessed by several teams around them.
Oregon +340 Check out these best odds at DraftKings Sportsbook
Oregon has one of the strangest cases in the field at 6-3. Losses to Oklahoma State, UCLA and Illinois created a nearly impossible situation, but Saturday's 41-28 road victory at Ohio State completely revived the Ducks' playoff hopes.
Michigan, Michigan State and Washington remain. Oregon likely needs to win all three and finish 9-3, then hope the committee values wins over Ohio State, USC and Boise State enough to overlook the loss total. In a normal season three defeats might eliminate the Ducks, but this year could be different.
USC +400 Check out these best odds at DraftKings Sportsbook
USC is 7-2 with one of the biggest remaining opportunities on the entire bubble. The Trojans already own wins over Penn State and Ohio State, while the losses came against Oregon and Wisconsin.
USC travels to Indiana this weekend before hosting Maryland and finishing at undefeated UCLA. Winning two games against Indiana and UCLA would give the Trojans an elite late-season résumé and could even make 9-3 enough. Winning all three would almost certainly put USC in the field.
Houston +450 Check out these best odds at DraftKings Sportsbook
Houston sits at 7-2 after beating Cincinnati 31-24, with its only losses coming against Texas Tech and Utah. Neither defeat is damaging, but the Cougars currently lack the type of marquee win that would separate them from the bubble.
Colorado, West Virginia and Baylor remain, so the path to 10-2 is very realistic. Houston needs to keep winning and hope the Big 12 race breaks favorably enough to produce a conference championship opportunity because an at-large résumé without a major late-season win could remain vulnerable.
Ohio State +500 Check out these best odds at DraftKings Sportsbook
Ohio State has become the most dramatic faller in the playoff picture. The Buckeyes are 6-3 after consecutive losses to USC and Oregon following Julian Sayin's shoulder injury, turning a team that once looked like a national championship contender into a genuine bubble team.
Northwestern and Nebraska come next before Michigan visits Columbus. Ohio State almost certainly needs to win all three and finish 9-3, with the earlier road victory over Indiana providing its strongest argument. Another loss should end any realistic playoff path.
South Carolina +800 Check out these best odds at DraftKings Sportsbook
South Carolina is only 6-3, but few teams have improved their résumé more dramatically over the last month. The Gamecocks have beaten Florida, Tennessee, Oklahoma and Texas A&M in four consecutive games after beginning the season 2-3.
The remaining schedule gives them an extraordinary opportunity. South Carolina visits Arkansas before hosting Georgia and finishing at Clemson. A win over Georgia would completely change the conversation, and a 9-3 finish with victories over Tennessee, Texas A&M and Georgia could create one of the strongest three-loss résumés available.
Arizona +900 Check out these best odds at DraftKings Sportsbook
Arizona enters at 7-2 after surviving TCU 29-28, with its losses coming against BYU and Texas Tech. The Wildcats have been dominant at times defensively, including holding Iowa State to three points, but they still lack the elite victory needed to move substantially higher.
That could change immediately with undefeated Utah visiting Tucson. Kansas State and Arizona State follow. If Arizona beats Utah and wins out to reach 10-2, the Wildcats would force their way into both the Big 12 race and the at-large discussion.
How Could the 12-Team CFP Field End Up?
The structure creates less available space than the raw rankings initially suggest. Georgia, Miami, Utah and either UCLA or Indiana are currently positioned to represent the four major conferences, while Boise State or New Mexico could claim the fifth automatic berth. Notre Dame is also guaranteed a place if it finishes inside the final CFP top 12.
Add Alabama, the other elite Big Ten contender and likely Texas, and the number of true at-large openings shrinks rapidly. That is why head-to-head results and November résumé opportunities matter so much for the teams sitting between roughly No. 9 and No. 25.
The unusual part of this season is the loss distribution. Ohio State, Oregon, LSU, Ole Miss and South Carolina already have three defeats, while several two-loss teams still have difficult schedules ahead. It is entirely realistic that one or even multiple 9-3 teams reach the playoff if their victories are strong enough.
Tennessee, LSU and South Carolina have the clearest opportunities to build elite three-loss SEC résumés. Oregon and Ohio State can do the same in the Big Ten, while USC still has games against Indiana and UCLA that could vault it ahead of both.
The safest bubble strategy remains simple: get to 10 wins. Texas, Wake Forest, Iowa, BYU, Texas Tech and Houston all have realistic paths there. The teams that finish 9-3 will need quality wins, favorable comparisons and enough chaos around them to survive what could become one of the most complicated final CFP selections of the 12-team era.
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