Memphis Grizzlies vs Indiana Pacers Picks and Prediction: Siakam's Wrist Is the Whole Ballgame as Two Beat-Up Rosters Collide in Indy
The Memphis Grizzlies (22-36) limp into Gainbridge Fieldhouse on Sunday, March 1, tipping at 5:00 PM ET against the Indiana Pacers (15-45), with GG Jackson averaging 21.8 points over his last five games carrying a roster that's lost Ja Morant (elbow), Zach Edey (ankle), and six others to the injury report, while Pascal Siakam's day-to-day wrist status has the Pacers, already operating without Tyrese Haliburton (achilles, season), Aaron Nesmith (ankle), and Ivica Zubac (ankle), looking thinner than a preseason game. The Grizzlies opened as -1 to -1.5 favorites depending on the book, with totals sitting at 237.5 to 238.5, and the spread is as close to a pick'em as it gets, which makes Siakam's availability the only number that actually matters in this one.
OC Staff - March 1, 2026, 12:00 PM EST
3 Minute ReadMemphis Grizzlies vs Indiana Pacers Picks and Prediction: Siakam's Wrist Is the Whole Ballgame as Two Beat-Up Rosters Collide in Indy
Grizzlies vs Pacers Recent Performance
Memphis sits at 22-36 and went 3-7 over its last ten games, but the last few days carry some weight. The Grizzlies snapped a three-game skid Friday with a 124-105 road win at Dallas, and GG Jackson has quietly become one of the more interesting names to watch down the stretch. Over his last six games, Jackson put up 20.2 points, 5.8 rebounds, and 1.0 blocks per game at 57.6% from the field, including a 28-point, 9-rebound performance in Miami and a 24-point showing against Golden State. His 12-point, 4-assist game in the Dallas win looked like a guy getting comfortable in a lead role, not a hot stretch about to cool off. The Grizzlies have enough pieces around him, including Cam Spencer at 11.4 points and 5.5 assists and Ty Jerome's 28-point game against Sacramento before his thigh issue flared, to keep games competitive even without their franchise player.
At 15-45, Indiana's record says everything. The Pacers have lost five straight, went 2-8 over their last ten, and got rolled 133-109 by Charlotte on Thursday, the same Hornets team sitting at the bottom of the East. Haliburton has been done for months, Zubac just adds to a frontcourt that was already compromised, and Siakam's wrist means their leading scorer is either limited or watching from the bench. Jarace Walker has reached double digits in 14 of his last 15 games, which is solid development content but not exactly a winning formula. Obi Toppin just made his return from a foot injury and is on a minutes restriction. This is a team playing out the string, not fighting for anything meaningful in the standings.
Grizzlies vs Pacers Head to Head
These teams met once this season, and Memphis won 128-103 on October 25 at FedExForum. Grizzlies cover in the season series, 1-0 ATS. The all-time road record for Memphis in Indy is ugly at 7-21, but that historical number doesn't reflect what either of these rosters look like right now. The Pacers are 15-45 and actively depleted. Road record trends carry very little weight against a home team that has lost five in a row to squads who were not favorites to beat them.
Memphis Grizzlies vs Indiana Pacers Date, Time, and Where to Watch
- Date: Sunday, March 1, 2026
- Time: 5:00 PM ET
- How to Watch: FanDuel Sports Network Southeast, FanDuel Sports Network Indiana, NBA League Pass
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Grizzlies vs Pacers Odds
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Grizzlies vs Pacers Team News
Memphis carries eight players on the injury report. Ja Morant (elbow) and Zach Edey (ankle) remain out, and Brandon Clarke (calf) and Kentavious Caldwell-Pope (finger, season) are done. Santi Aldama (knee), Ty Jerome (thigh), and Cedric Coward (knee) are all day-to-day, meaning the Grizzlies' rotation could look different by tip. The depth chart gets tight fast when you peel those names back. GG Jackson has stepped into a true lead role and run with it, averaging 16.3 points, 6.0 rebounds, and 2.1 assists for the month of February while posting 20-plus points in four of his last five games. At 21 years old and on track to have his club option picked up, he's given Memphis a legitimate go-to option nobody saw coming from the 45th pick.
Siakam is the entire story on the Indiana side. He went out before Thursday's game against Charlotte and the Pacers lost by 24. At 23.9 points and 6.8 rebounds per game, Siakam is the only player on Indiana's roster who can consistently put pressure on a defense. Without him, the Pacers run everything through Nembhard, who averages 17.4 points and 7.4 assists but carries a prop line of 19.5 points that sits well above his season average, and Walker, who contributes energy and hustle without changing what a defense has to guard. Toppin's return is a positive story, but he's on a minutes limit and not yet back at full speed. The closer Siakam is to out, the more this game opens up for Memphis.
Prediction: Grizzlies 118, Pacers 107
Memphis wins this one with room to spare if Siakam misses or is severely limited. Jackson gets his 20-plus, Spencer runs the second unit efficiently, and the Grizzlies' recent offensive form (118.1 points per game over their last ten) exploits a Pacers defense that has allowed 124.7 per game during that same stretch. Nembhard keeps Indiana competitive through two quarters, Walker adds energy off the glass, and the Pacers make it look respectable into the third. The back half is where Memphis pulls away. A 15-45 team playing without its star and without the depth to compensate runs out of answers in the fourth.
Best Bet: Grizzlies ML (-105) Click here to get the best odds at bet365 Sportsbook
This line's tightness reflects how bad both teams are playing, not a realistic projection that Indiana wins this game. Haliburton has been gone for months. Zubac just added to the list. Siakam is questionable after sitting Thursday against Charlotte. The Pacers have won only 24% of their games as moneyline underdogs all season, which means they win once every four tries when the market already expects them to lose. The Grizzlies just won by 19 at Dallas despite a depleted roster, GG Jackson is as locked in as he's been all year, and at -105 you're getting near-even money on the side that is clearly more competitive. Get the Grizzlies ML before Siakam's status finalizes and the line adjusts.
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