Atlanta Hawks vs. New York Knicks Prediction, Betting Pick & Latest NBA Playoffs Game 1 Odds
The New York Knicks host the Atlanta Hawks in Game 1 of their first-round Eastern Conference series on Saturday, a matchup few saw coming when Atlanta was 15-18 and Trae Young was still on the roster. The Hawks got hot after the All-Star break, went 20-6, and earned the No. 6 seed by actually finishing the job, but Madison Square Garden in April is a different arena than State Farm on a Tuesday in February. Let's check out the odds and best bet for this Atlanta Hawks vs. New York Knicks prediction on April 18.
OC Staff - April 18, 2026, 2:00 PM EDT
3 Minute ReadAtlanta Hawks vs. New York Knicks Prediction: The Knicks Have Been Here Before. Atlanta Has Not.
The Knicks open as 4.5-point home favorites with the total sitting at 216.5. New York went 30-10 at home this season, one of the best home records in the East. Their 9-4 record in games decided by three or fewer points isn't just a stat, it's a personality trait. The Hawks covered as underdogs at a 21-19 clip in the regular season, which gives this some texture, and their one regular season win in this series came back in January when the Knicks were banged up. The market has this as roughly a one-possession game on paper, and that framing suits Atlanta's chances more than it suits their actual resume.
The bigger picture: this is the fourth straight year the Knicks have made the playoffs, and the third straight year they've advanced to at least the second round. Atlanta advanced to the Play-In last season and lost in the first round after a 40-42 regular season. The Hawks have a genuinely different team now, and the second half of their season was real, but playoff basketball is a specific sport and there's a learning curve the Knicks already paid for.
Atlanta Hawks vs. New York Knicks Recent Results
New York closed the regular season at 53-29, good for the No. 3 seed in the East. Their most meaningful stretch came on April 6, when Jalen Brunson dropped 30 points against Atlanta in a 108-105 road win, dishing out 13 assists alongside it in 39 minutes. The Knicks went 18-9 after the All-Star break and won the NBA Cup back in December, though they did hit a wall in January, losing eight of ten before steadying. They rested their entire core in the regular season finale against Charlotte, and the whole group is expected back and ready for Saturday.
Atlanta went 20-6 after the All-Star break, the fourth-best net rating in the league over that stretch, and turned a team that was 15-18 at its low point into one worth fearing. That run was built on Jalen Johnson's ascent to All-NBA territory and Nickeil Alexander-Walker's career year, and the supporting cast found its role. The caveat: of those 26 games in Atlanta's surge, just four came against playoff-bound teams, and the Hawks went 2-2 in those. They lost to both the Knicks and Cavaliers in late regular season play when the stakes were highest.
Atlanta Hawks vs. New York Knicks Head to Head
New York took the regular season series 2-1. The first game on December 27 was the last time Trae Young suited up in a Hawks uniform, a 128-125 Knicks win that doesn't tell you much about the team Atlanta became after the trade. Atlanta's win came on January 2, a 111-99 blowout at home when the Knicks were missing Karl-Anthony Towns. The April 6 meeting is the one that matters most for what we're looking at on Saturday, and it went New York's way 108-105, with Brunson outdueling a Hawks team playing for playoff seeding.
The recent head-to-head is lopsided: New York has won five of the last six matchups dating back to January 2025. This series also carries some history from the 2021 first-round playoffs, where Trae Young made himself public enemy number one at Madison Square Garden as Atlanta advanced. Young is gone now and these are different teams, but the Knicks have unfinished business with this opponent and the crowd at MSG will not let anyone forget it.
Atlanta Hawks vs. New York Knicks Date, Time, and Where to Watch
- Date: Saturday, April 18, 2026
- Time: 6:00 PM ET
- How to Watch: Amazon Prime Video, NBA League Pass
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Atlanta Hawks vs. New York Knicks Odds
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Atlanta Hawks vs. New York Knicks Team News
The Knicks enter with a few names to watch but no confirmed absences for Game 1. Brunson sat out the finale for ankle management and is expected to start, as is Karl-Anthony Towns, who also rested an elbow issue in the final game. The bigger concern is OG Anunoby, who tweaked his left ankle in the win over Toronto, but he practiced Wednesday and all signs point to him suiting up. Tyler Kolek is questionable with an oblique strain, and Mitchell Robinson managed a left ankle issue late in the season, though both should be available. The full starting five of Brunson, Mikal Bridges, Anunoby, Towns, and Josh Hart is expected on the floor.
Atlanta is close to full strength, with one notable injury to monitor. Nickeil Alexander-Walker missed the regular season finale with a right toe sprain, but he's listed as Day-to-Day and is expected to be cleared for Saturday. Jalen Johnson sat for rest in the finale and is good to go. Jock Landale is out with an ankle injury. Jonathan Kuminga's knee status is worth checking against the final injury report before wagering. The expected starting five is Alexander-Walker, CJ McCollum, Dyson Daniels, Johnson, and Onyeka Okongwu.
Prediction: New York Knicks 111, Atlanta Hawks 104
Alexander-Walker is the matchup this series will be talked about for however long it lasts. He averaged 28 points against the Knicks across three regular season meetings and went for 36 on April 6. He also hit at least three triples in every single one of those games against New York, which is a problem because the Knicks have been soft defending the 3 all season. The Knicks have Anunoby, Bridges, and Hart to throw at him in rotation, which should contain some of the damage, but Alexander-Walker has already shown this specific group does not have an answer.
Brunson is the other side of that equation, and his case is stronger in a playoff setting. He's one of the better shot creators in late-game situations in the entire league, and he's been unshaken in close games all season. Dyson Daniels is a legitimate stopper, and the Hawks will make Brunson work for everything. Towns presents a problem Atlanta cannot fully solve with Okongwu as the primary option, and his scoring average against the Hawks this season was 28.5 points across two meetings. New York closes this one at home, but it won't be a blowout.
Atlanta Hawks vs. New York Knicks Best Bet
- Under 216.5 (-110) Click here to get the best odds at BetMGM Sportsbook
- Nickeil Alexander-Walker Over 20.5 Points (-120) Click here to get the best odds at DraftKings Sportsbook
Our FairPlay AI likes the Under 216.5 (-105). Two of the three regular season meetings between these teams finished Under the posted total, including both meaningful games against the current Hawks roster, with the April 6 game landing at 213. Playoff tempo typically compresses offense a handful of possessions per game, and Atlanta's fastest-in-the-league pace runs directly into a Madison Square Garden crowd that makes half-court grinds feel like home. The Knicks' defensive rating lands in the top 10, and both teams are built around halfcourt playmakers who do their best work in structured sets rather than run-and-gun situations. Games at MSG in the playoffs tend to get ugly fast, and the market at 216.5 hasn't fully adjusted for that.
It also points to value on Nickeil Alexander-Walker Over 20.5 Points. He's averaged 23.8 points over his last 10 games entering the playoffs. Against the Knicks specifically, he's put up 28 per game across three regular season matchups. New York ranks 21st in the league in opponents' 3-point efficiency, and Alexander-Walker drills threes against this team at a rate that makes any line anchored to his season average look light. The market will price him at his season number, not his Knicks number, and that gap is the value.
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