Miami vs. Virginia Prediction: Can Norchad Omier, Hurricanes Keep It Competitive on the Road?
The Miami Hurricanes take on the Virginia Cavaliers in an ACC matchup tonight. Can Norchad Omier and the Hurricanes keep it competitive on the road? Ben Rajavuori breaks this game down.
Ben Rajavuori - February 5, 2024, 4:41 PM EST
7 minMiami vs. Virginia Prediction: Can Norchad Omier, Hurricanes Keep It Competitive on the Road?
The Miami Hurricanes travel to Charlottesville, Virginia, tonight to take on the Virginia Cavaliers in an ACC Monday night matchup. The Hurricanes are coming off a comeback win at home over Virginia Tech on Saturday, winning 82–74 against the Hokies. That game moved Miami to 15–7 overall and 6–5 in conference play. The Cavaliers, meanwhile, have been one of the hottest teams in the ACC, winning six games in a row to improve to 17–5 overall and 8–3 in conference play. They are coming off a very close win over Clemson on the road on Saturday, winning 66–65. The Cavaliers are six-point favorites over the Hurricanes tonight. Can they cover?
Miami vs. Virginia DATE, TIME, AND WHERE TO WATCH
- Date: February 5, 2024
- Game Time: 7:00 pm ET
- Where to Watch: ESPN
Miami vs. Virginia Prediction
To no one's surprise, the Virginia Cavalier's defense is once again a top unit in the country. The Cavaliers are allowing just 57.8 points per game, which is second in the country behind Houston. They are allowing opponents to make just 20.6 field goals per game, which is also second in the country. Tony Bennett is an excellent defensive-minded coach who always has Virginia playing excellent defense. Virginia also opts to play at one of the slowest paces in the nation, as they wear and grind opponents down over 40 minutes. However, the knack of Virginia is a constant problem that they have faced since they won the national championship back in 2019: their defense.
Virginia is led in scoring by Reece Beekman, who is averaging 13.3 points per game. Isaac McNeely is second on the team with 11.7 points per game. No other player on Virginia is above 10 points per game, and the leading score averaging just 13 is a red flag. While Tony Bennett and the defense are constantly getting stops, they struggle to go on large scoring runs, and they have struggled to score inside the perimeter this season.
The Hurricanes have an opposite problem under Jim Larranaga. The Hurricanes usually have a good offense that finds themselves lacking defensively. However, last year that problem was not so large, as they were able to run through the first four rounds of the NCAA tournament before losing to UConn in the final four. The Hurricanes had to replace some production from that team, though, as Isaiah Wong and Jordan Miller are not with the team this year.
Miami is led by Norchad Omier, who is scoring 18 points per game. Second on the team is standout transfer, Matthew Cleveland, who transferred from Florida State this off-season and is scoring 14.9 points per game. Overall, the Hurricanes have four players averaging above 14 points per game, proving that they do not need to rely on one guy to have success on offense.
While Miami can struggle defensively, their offense should travel well to Virginia. Miami loves to rely on the three-ball, and they do it well, averaging 38.1% from three, which is 20th in the nation. Virginia has struggled to defend the perimeter, as they are allowing opponents to shoot 32.2% from three, which is 93rd in the country, even though they are strong overall defensively.
If Miami can make their threes in this game, they should be able to keep it close until the end, which will be a problem for Virginia given their shooting from the free-throw line. Virginia is averaging just 65.2% from the charity stripe, which is 341st in the nation (23rd worst). This will be a massive issue in an endgame scenario where they may need to make free throws to close out the game. Given that the spread is six points, a scenario where Virginia needs to make free throws to cover could be very likely. Given that they have struggled on offense, especially from the free-throw line, I like Miami to stay in this game offensively and cover on the road.
Miami vs. Virginia Pick
Pick: Miami +6 -110 Click here to see which sportsbook has the best odds
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