March Madness Prediction: Can Auburn Emerge in Stacked East Region?
The First Four of the NCAA Tournament kicks off tonight but that does not mean we can't look towards the later stages of the tournament. Ben Rajavuori shares his March Madness prediction for which team will win the East Region. Check it out.
Ben Rajavuori - March 19, 2024, 5:25 PM EDT
7 minMarch Madness Prediction: Can Auburn Emerge in Stacked East Region?
The few days before the first round of the NCAA Tournament starts are always crazy. With filling out brackets and placing first round bets, it can be easy to forget about the value that can be found on futures. Aside from looking at a national champion, there can be some good value found in region winners. I have honed in on one that I love out of the east region.
2024 March Madness Prediction
UConn is the most popular to win at all this season. They are the reigning champs and come in as the number-one overall seed in the tournament this year. They return a lot of production from last year‘s team and are very well coached by Dan Hurley, so I get it, but there’s absolutely no value in picking them to win the East at barely above plus money. They are +110 to win the east on FanDuel and +105 on DraftKings. March Madness is way too crazy a tournament to be taking +110 on any future.
Instead, I have my eye on Auburn. Auburn is +480, or nearly 5/1 to win the east region. While the East looks like a bloodbath, I feel Auburn is undervalued at nearly 5-to-1 odds. Auburn is ranked number four on Kenpom, which estimates that they are severely under-seeded in this tournament. While I’m not sure they should be a one-seed, putting them as a four feels almost disrespectful with what they have done this season. Auburn went 27–7 this season and won the SEC tournament, beating South Carolina, Mississippi State, and Florida in the process.
Auburn went undefeated in quad two, three, and four games, but just 3–7 in quad one games, so I see why there may be a bit of a knock on their résumé. However, Auburn plays extremely physical basketball and has tremendous length and athleticism on their team, which is a metric you can’t account for on computers. They pass an eye test that can’t be analyzed on models. Auburn's defense is suffocating and they ranked first overall in two-point percentage on defense and third in block percentage this season. They also have an incredibly efficient offense that does not turn it over often, goes for rebounds, and gets to the line often. Auburn is the kind of team that I love rooting for in tournaments as they are extremely well-balanced and are also well coached by Bruce Pearl. The hard part of Auburn winning the east will be getting through some of the very talented teams in the region like Iowa State, Illinois, and, of course, UConn. Auburn should cruise through the first round against Yale, but they will have to potentially play San Diego State, the reigning runner-up from last year‘s tournament, in the second round. However, San Diego State lost Matt Bradley this year, who was their leading score from last year, so I do think Auburn will have the edge in that game and can make it to the Sweet 16. They would likely meet UConn in the Sweet 16 unless something absolutely insane happens. That will be the hardest part about cashing this +480 ticket, although they will also have to potentially play Illinois or Iowa State in the Elite Eight.
I love how Auburn matches up with Illinois and Iowa State, so I think the game against UConn is the one that makes or breaks this bet. When looking at the odds to win the east, Auburn will undoubtedly be much shorter than a +480 favorite if they are to meet UConn in the Sweet 16, so I believe there’s value in them to win the east, given that if they make it out of the game, they should go to the Final Four. Getting nearly five times our bet back if Auburn makes the final four seems like great value to me, so lock this one in, and let’s cash this one into the final four. Also, they are only +380 for this same bet on DraftKings, so take the value on FanDuel for this bet.
2024 March Madness Pick
Pick: Auburn to Win the East Region +480 Click here to see which sportsbook has the best odds
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