Grambling State vs Montana State Prediction: Can Robert Ford III, Bobcats Hot Shooting Continue in First Four?
Grambling State vs Montana State Prediction: Can Robert Ford III, Bobcats Hot Shooting Continue in First Four?
Montana State has had a roller coaster of a season as they actually lost to an NAIA school back in late November. It also wasn’t like that loss was on a buzzer beater either as they actually trailed at the half and ended up losing to Rocky Mountain College by eight points.
Grambling State vs. Montana State DATE, TIME, WHERE TO WATCH
- Date: March 20, 2024
- Game Time: 6:40 pm ET
- Where to Watch: TruTV
Grambling State vs. Montana State Prediction
Montana State was able to right the ship after this horrendous loss as they had a fairly solid conference season as they went 9-9 in Big Sky play. Fast forward to the conference tournament and this bobcats team hit their stride at the perfect time.
In their opening game of the Big Sky Tournament, they had a tall task ahead of them as they had to face one of the better offenses in the conference in Weber State. Montana State was down by double digits at multiple different points in this game but were able to put together one of the best second halves that any team has had this season as they scored 66 total points in the second half alone against Weber State to cruise to victory. Their shooting continued in their next two games against Sacramento State and Montana as well as they scored 74 against Sacramento State and 85 against the Grizzlies in the Big Sky Championship game.
The thing I like about this Montana State team is that they have a true number one guy in Robert Ford. Ford averages over 15 points per game while shooting 47% from the field, 42% from three, and just under 80% from the free-throw line. This is a very solid slash line for a guy who averages over 11 shots per game while also providing excellent defense on the other end as well. Ford is averaging an astounding 2.9 steals per game, which is second in the entire country, so Ford is one of the better defenders in the entire nation in college basketball this season. Ford also averages 7.7 rebounds per game and just under three assists per game so he rebounds extremely well for a shorter guard which could give Grambling State some issues on the defensive boards, but the real problem I see Grambling State having in this game is being able to take care of the ball effectively.
Grambling State turns the ball over a lot as they are currently ranked 341st in the country in offensive turnover percentage as they are turning the ball over on nearly 21% of their total offensive possessions.
On the other side, Montana State is one of the better teams in the nation at forcing turnovers, largely due to Ford, as the bobcats are ranked 74th in the country in defensive turnover percentage aka forcing turnovers. While the metrics for each of these teams look fairly similar on both sides of the ball, there is a huge disparity in overall talent level between these rosters and the schedules that each of these teams faced.
Grambling State was one of the best teams in the SWAC all season and finished off their conference season winning the SWAC tournament, but they were annihilated in their nonconference schedule against pretty much every team they faced. While they did play a fairly hard, nonconference schedule, we have seen SWAC teams like Texas Southern pull off upsets against power five teams in the past, but this was not even close to the case with this Grambling State team this season. Grambling State did not even beat a division one opponent until January 6th of this season as their three wins to that point had all come against non-division one opponents.
This Montana state team actually got a win over power five California and played a much tougher in conference schedule against teams like Weber State, Southern Utah, Montana, and Eastern Washington who all likely would have been favored over Grambling State by double digits.
The strength of this Montana State team is in their offense, as they are in the top 100 in most offensive metrics. They are ranked 46th in the nation in overall effective field goal percentage (53.9%), 42nd in three point shooting as a team (36.4%), and 62nd from two point range (53.4%).
The metrics indicate that Grambling State is a slightly above average defensive team, but this is where context is extremely important as the SWAC is a horrendous offensive conference, and many of Grambling State’s defensive statistics appear inflated because of constantly facing some of the worst offenses in the country. Grambling State also fouls a lot and allows a lot of offensive rebounds, which could be an issue against a faster and more talented Montana State team.
With that being said, I am rolling with Montana State at -3.5 -110 for 1.5U as one of my most confident college basketball plays of the day for tonight’s action as I think the Bobcats offense will be too much for Tigers to overcome.
Grambling State vs. Montana State Pick
1.5U Montana State at -3.5 -110 Click here to see which sportsbook has the best odds
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Article Author
Joey has spent the last 6+ years betting on sports with a focus on basketball and baseball. Basketball is his main focus, and not many people know more about mid-major basketball than him. Whether you need advice on a Saturday night primetime game or a Tuesday night back-alley SWAC/MEAC game, Joey is your man.