Illinois vs. Iowa State Prediction: Can Tamin Lipsey, Cyclones Eliminate Illini in Sweet 16 Showdown?
The Iowa State Cyclones will do battle with the Illinois Fighting Illini on Thursday night in a hotly-contested Sweet 16 matchup. Can Tamin Lipsey and the Cyclones emerge victorious over the Illini? Ben Rajavuori breaks it down with his Illinois vs. Iowa State prediction and pick.
Ben Rajavuori - March 28, 2024, 2:42 PM EDT
5 minIllinois vs. Iowa State Prediction: Can Tamin Lipsey, Cyclones Eliminate Illini in Sweet 16 Showdown?
The Iowa State Cyclones and Illinois Fighting Illini meet in the Sweet 16 from TD Garden in Boston tonight. The Cyclones have beaten South Dakota State and Washington State to get here, while the Illini have beaten Morehead State and Duquesne to get here. This game is razor close on the books, as Iowa State is a slight 1.5-point favorite to take care of business and reach the Elite Eight. Can they do it?
ILLINOIS VS. IOWA STATE DATE, TIME, AND WHERE TO WATCH
- Date: March 28, 2024
- Start Time: 10:09 p.m. ET
- Where to Watch: TBS, truTV
ILLINOIS VS. IOWA STATE ODDS
- Spread: Illinois +1.5 (-108), Iowa State -1.5 (-110)
- Total Odds: O 146 (-110), U 146 (-109)
- Moneyline Odds: Illinois (+100), Iowa State (-120)
ILLINOIS VS. IOWA STATE PREDICTION
Iowa State has gotten to this point in the Sweet 16 thanks to the excellent coaching of TJ Otzelberger. Otzelberger has completely revitalized this program, and has made the NCAA Tournament in three straight seasons, with this also being the second Sweet Sixteen appearance in those three seasons. The name of the game for Iowa State has been defense. Iowa State has ranked top 10 in defensive efficiency in all three seasons Otzelberger has been with the program, and this year, they rank 1st overall in defensive efficiency heading into this game against Illinois. What makes this year's team so dangerous, though, is that the offense has also improved.
Many people remember Iowa State's stinker of a first round last year when they scored just 41 points in the first round against Pittsburgh. They made moves to remedy their offense this season in the portal. UNLV transfer Keshon Gilbert leads the teams with 13.7 points per game, and has been a good spark to the offense. Transfer Curtis Jones is also adding 10.6 points per game. When Iowa State can score efficiently on offense, they are incredibly tough to beat because their defense is one of the toughest in the nation already.
The Fighting Illini are in their seventh season with Brad Underwood. Illinois has been a tournament staple in recent years, as they have made the tournament in four straight years after missing the tournament for the first three with Underwood at the helm.
Illinois is the complete opposite of Iowa State. The name of the game for the Illini is offense. Illinois ranks first overall on Kenpom in offensive efficiency. However, they lack on the other side of the court. Illinois ranks just 91st in defensive efficiency, which is usually not a good recipe for a deep run in late March. It's this defense that has cost them games by giving up big runs and letting teams back into games or build leads.
With this clash of styles, I tend to favor the elite defense compared to an elite offense, especially in the case of Iowa State's defense against the Illinois offense. I'm not sure how Terrance Shannon will break through this defense, but I am sure that Iowa State can score on the porous Illinois defense. This game comes down to Iowa State controlling the pace and dictating their style of play in this game. Illinois is in over their head here and Iowa State will be going to the Elite Eight.
ILLINOIS VS. IOWA STATE Pick
Pick: Iowa State ML (-115) Click here to see which sportsbook has the best odds
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