Colorado State vs. Memphis Prediction: Can Tigers Advance Without Tyrese Hunter in NCAA Tournament Opener?

No. 5 seed Memphis and No. 12 seed Colorado State square off this afternoon in Seattle.

This is one of the rare situations where a much lower seed is favored to win the game. The line has shifted partly due to the absence of Memphis guard Tyrese Hunter, who was injured during the American Tournament.

29 wins for Memphis this year is the best record Penny Hardaway’s ever had in this job. It’s similar to past Penny teams in that they play fast (28th in tempo), excel at drawing fouls (30th in free throw rate), and are led by star players PJ Haggerty and Dain Dainja. Unlike some recent Memphis teams, this group can really shoot it (38% from 3pt range) and has had no drama!

Get your first month of oddschecker+ right now for just $0.99. Don't miss out on this March Madness deal!

Colorado State vs. Memphis Odds

• ML: Colorado State -120, Memphis +100
• Spread: Colorado State -1.5 (-110), Memphis +1.5 (-110)
• Total: O/U 146.5 (-110)

Colorado State vs. Memphis Date, Time, and Where to Watch

• Date: March 21, 2024
• Game Time: 2:00 pm ET
• Where to Watch: TBS

Click here for latest Colorado State vs. Memphis Odds

Colorado State vs. Memphis Prediction

Colorado State is red-hot right now, winners of 10 straight games. Over that stretch, per Bart Torvik, the Rams have been the 8th best team in the country. Niko Medved’s guys are shooting the lights out from deep (47.4%) and opponents have really struggled to match that on the other end (27.3%) over these past five weeks. CSU is led by a potential first-round NBA guy in do-it-all wing Nique Clifford, goes nine deep, and plays undersized with nobody over 6-8.

CSU shares the ball well (8th nationally in assist rate), thanks to the creative offensive sets Niko Medved draws up. One thing that bodes really well for Memphis here defensively is that their athleticism allows them to switch a lot, which should help them stay disciplined against CSU’s motion offense. Not having Hunter hurts, but Memphis still has a strong seven-man rotation. I think they have the personnel to disrupt CSU’s offense and keep their recent hot shooting in check.

A couple of key weaknesses for Memphis are that they can be loose with the ball (306th in turnover %) and allow offensive rebounds (300th in OReb%). However, Colorado State isn’t built to capitalize on those weaknesses, as the Rams are 202nd in defensive TO%, and 279th in offensive rebounding.

Looking for another angle on this Colorado State vs. Memphis game? Jason Radowitz shares his analysis and gives his best betting pick for the opening round of March Madness

Another key thing here is how good Memphis has been against top competition. Memphis went 6-1 in Quad 1 games this season. On Bart Torvik, if you filter team efficiencies to only Q1 games, Memphis ranks 15th. This is the type of team that plays up or down to their competition. They have the talent to beat anybody, and this has been a similar theme throughout Penny’s coaching career. He’s got a 71-79 ATS record as a favorite, and a 35-19 record as an underdog.

Memphis being underdogs to a 12-seed from the Mountain West is perfect bulletin board material for Penny Hardaway’s team. As good as Nique Clifford is, Memphis has two stars in PJ Haggerty and Dain Dainja. I think they could go crazy here — I’m talking 45+ combined points from them.

Colorado State is undersized in the frontcourt, and Dainja should be able to bully them and eat on the interior. Haggerty is a walking bucket, and I expect the Rams to struggle to guard him.

I feel confident that Colorado State’s recent shooting surge will cool off, and Penny’s stars will carry Memphis to a win.

Colorado State vs. Memphis Pick

• Pick: Memphis ML +105 Click here for complete Colorado State vs. Memphis Odds

COLLEGE BASKETBALL ODDS & PICKS

• Looking for March Madness odds? We got you covered!
• Need more March Madness picks? Get them all right here.
• Which longshots could go on a deep run? Check the latest Final Four Odds
• Duke has the best odds to win it all for the first time in a decade. Can anyone stop them? Take a look at the complete National Championship odds