Arizona vs. Duke Prediction: Can Blue Devils Shut Down Caleb Love, Wildcats in Sweet 16?

No. 1 seed Duke is taking on No. 4 seed Arizona tonight in Newark with a spot in the Elite Eight on the line.

Duke has lost just one game in the past four months (a six-point loss at Clemson). They’ve carried that momentum right into the NCAA Tournament, breezing past Mount St. Mary’s 93-49 before overwhelming Baylor 89-66. Cooper Flagg looks healthy after the ankle injury he suffered in the ACC Tournament. He put up 18 points, 9 rebounds, and 6 assists in just 29 minutes against Baylor. The main storyline for Duke so far in this tournament, though, has been the play of Tyrese Proctor. The junior guard is a scorching 13-for-16 from deep through these first two games.

Arizona similarly cruised through their first-round matchup, defeating Akron 93-65. Against a familiar foe and former Pac-12 rival Oregon, things were much tighter, but the Wildcats pulled out an 87-83 win. Caleb Love was fantastic in that game, scoring an efficient 29 points and shooting 5-of-7 from long distance.

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Arizona vs. Duke Odds

• Spread: Arizona +9.5 (-110), Duke -9.5 (-105)
• Moneyline: Arizona (+420), Duke (-550)
• Total: Over 155.5 (-105), Under 155.5 (-108)

Arizona vs. Duke Date, Time, and Where to Watch

• Date: Thursday, March 27, 2025
• Time: 9:39 PM ET
• How to Watch: CBS

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Arizona vs. Duke Prediction

These teams played in Tucson back in November, with Duke (1.5-point underdogs at the time) winning 69-55 in a surprisingly low-scoring affair. Duke’s defense was fantastic—as it’s been all season—forcing 15 Arizona turnovers, and holding Caleb Love to just 8 points on 3-of-13 shooting. Flagg led the way for Duke with 24 points, 7 rebounds, and 3 blocks.

A few key personnel notes from that matchup: Maliq Brown played 24 minutes for the Blue Devils, but his status is uncertain for tonight. Caleb Foster started and played 26 minutes but has since been moved to a reserve role. Sion James came off the bench in that game—one of just seven games he didn’t start this season.

On Arizona’s side, Motiejus Krivas started at center, with Henri Veesaar coming off the bench. Krivas has been out for the season since December, while Veesaar has thrived in an expanded role and even played his way onto NBA Draft boards. Tobe Awaka also logged just 12 minutes in that game—his second-lowest total of the year—but now starts and has become one of the best rebounders in the country.

Clearly, a lot has changed for both teams since that November meeting.

For tonight’s matchup, the 9.5-point spread may look like a lot, but this Duke team is a total juggernaut. Arizona is more athletic and has a positional size advantage over most opponents—but Duke is not most opponents.

Arizona looks elite when they’re getting out in transition, hitting shots from deep, and when Caleb Love is, well, Good Caleb Love. Of course, he was the Duke killer in 2022, ending Coach K’s career in the Final Four with a 28-point performance capped off by a dagger three. He’ll be juiced up for this one—but will that lead to a big-time stat line or out-of-control, tunnel-vision play? That’s the question.

Another angle to consider: Arizona has a valuable defensive option in 6'9" freshman wing Carter Bryant. From a tools standpoint, there might not be a better on-paper matchup for Cooper Flagg in all of college basketball. That’s not to say he’s going to lock up Flagg—but he might at least make things more difficult than most defenders have.

At the end of the day, Duke is incredibly difficult to guard and elite defensively. I don’t feel comfortable fading them. Arizona has the talent to hang, but they often overwhelm opponents with athleticism and size—that edge isn’t there tonight. Arizona is a great offensive team (13th on KenPom), but against elite defenses, they tend to fall off a cliff. They scored just 55 in the earlier meeting with Duke, 54 against UCLA, and 58 and 64 in two matchups vs. Houston.

Maybe we get a Caleb Love legacy game—but that’s not something I’m betting on against this Duke machine. Rather than lay the points with Duke, I’m targeting the under on Arizona’s team total, as I expect a slightly slower game than the market projects.

Arizona vs. Duke Pick

• Pick: Arizona TT Under 72.5 (-110) Click here to see which sportsbook has the best price on Arizona vs. Duke odds

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