Arkansas vs. Texas Tech Prediction: Can JT Toppin, Red Raiders Avoid Sweet 16 Upset Against Razorbacks?

No. 3 seed Texas Tech takes on No. 10 seed Arkansas in the West Regional Semifinals out in San Francisco.

Texas Tech has beaten both of its double-digit seed opponents so far this tournament by double digits, but the games were a bit closer than that. UNC Wilmington trailed by just five with four minutes remaining before eventually falling 82–72. The 77–64 win over Drake flowed similarly, with Tech holding a lead throughout the second half before pulling away late. Kerwin Walton exploded for 27 points on 8–19 shooting from behind the arc in the UNCW win, while it was JT Toppin and Darrion Williams combining for 53 against Drake.

John Calipari’s Razorbacks are the only double-digit seed remaining in the NCAA Tournament. Johnell Davis and Jonas Aidoo combined for 40 in the Hogs’ 79–72 opening-round win over Kansas. In the 75–66 second-round win over St. John’s, Arkansas leaned on their defense, holding St. John’s to 28% field goal shooting.

Injury news is a main headline here, as Texas Tech appears to be getting Chance McMillian back (in some capacity) from an oblique strain. Arkansas, who got Boogie Fland back for the Kansas game, will now have everybody available with Adou Thiero returning to action.

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Arkansas vs. Texas Tech Odds

• Spread: Arkansas +5.5 (-110), Texas Tech -5.5 (-110)
• Moneyline: Arkansas (+200), Texas Tech (-550)
• Total: Over 148.5 (-105), Under 148.5 (-108)

Arkansas vs. Texas Tech Date, Time, and Where to Watch

• Date: Thursday, March 27, 2025
• Time: 10:09 PM ET
• How to Watch: TBS/TruTV

Click here for latest Arkansas vs. Texas Tech Odds

Arkansas vs. Texas Tech Prediction

The first thing that jumped out to me about this matchup is what Arkansas can do defensively on JT Toppin. The Big 12 Player of the Year has carved up so many different defenses with his power and touch around the basket. However, I do think the length and interior defense of Arkansas—with the combination of Jonas Aidoo, Trevon Brazile, and Zvonimir Ivisic—is better equipped to guard him than 95% of teams.

Texas Tech is 5th in KenPom efficiency for a reason. Toppin surrounded by a bunch of shot-making guards and a do-it-all stud wing in Darrion Williams makes the Red Raiders so hard to guard. They are very unselfish, and anybody can get going on any given night. They take really good care of the basketball (24th nationally in turnover rate) and are a beautiful offensive team.

The key for me here is how well Arkansas will be able to guard tonight. On paper, Arkansas has the talent, length, and athleticism to make dribble drives difficult and force tougher looks. But considering the amount of prep time Grant McCasland has had this week—combined with the fact that Texas Tech has so many high-quality scorers—I don’t think the Razorbacks are going to be able to defend nearly as successfully as they did in the first two rounds.

Texas Tech brings so many more dimensions to the table than Kansas and St. John’s. The Johnnies shot 2–22 from deep and relied on barreling toward the rim and crashing the offensive glass for success. Kansas moves the ball well but really isn’t all that tough to guard outside of Dickinson (49th offensively in KP). Anyways, I’m confident that Texas Tech’s offensive connectivity and spacing gives them a really strong chance to score well in this matchup.

On the other end of the floor, Arkansas is talented and athletic, but when kept in the halfcourt—like St. John’s—they mostly want to get downhill and get to the line. I’ll caveat by saying the way this game is officiated could be crucial to the outcome, as a more tightly called game would benefit the Hogs greatly. Anyways, Johnell Davis is the only player on the team who’s hit more than one three-pointer this tournament. Texas Tech isn’t a super talented defensive team, but they keep guys in front and play well together.

I can’t get to laying the 5.5 just because this Arkansas team is such a wildcard, especially considering we don’t know the extent to which Thiero will be involved here. I have much more faith in this Texas Tech team that has been more consistent all year and is much better at shooting the basketball to get it done, which is why I lean that way.

Arkansas vs. Texas Tech Pick

• Lean: Texas Tech -5.5 (-110) Click here to see which sportsbook has the best price on Arkansas vs. Texas Tech odds

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